Marcelo Alves
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Marcelo Alves's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-0.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 60
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 18.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €567k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -23% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1667 (62% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.11
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.14
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 19 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1197
- Opponent strength
- 1375
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €398k – €822k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -11% (IQR -27% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1667 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 48%–200%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Sochi | Premier Liga | CB | 19 | 1667 | 62% | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.14 | 1375 | 1197 | 0.56 |
| 2023/24 | FK Sochi | Premier Liga | CB | 25 | 2151 | 80% | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 1336 | 1222 | 0.49 |
| 2021/22 | CD Tondela | Liga Portugal | CB | 9 | 728 | 24% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1381 | 1230 | 0.67 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Sochi | 4 | 311 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FK Sochi | 4 | 274 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Radmanovac Premier Liga · 2024 | 27 | €700k | €700k | flat |
| João Correia Liga Portugal · 2024 | 28 | €600k | €600k | flat |
| Henrique Liga Portugal · 2016 | 30 | €600k | €200k | fell |
| Lubomir Satka Super Lig · 2024 | 29 | €1.0M | €1.5M | rose |
| Federico Pereyra Premier Liga · 2017 | 28 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Benaissa Benamar Eredivisie · 2023 | 26 | €700k | €550k | fell |
| Christos Lisgaras Super League 1 · 2013 | 27 | €500k | €400k | fell |
| Mohamed Sarr Super League 1 · 2013 | 30 | €500k | €500k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Feb 2024 | Madureira | FK Sochi | €500k | €500k |
| 21 Feb 2024 | FK Sochi | Madureira | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Madureira | FK Sochi | Free / loan | €650k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Tondela | Madureira | Free / loan | €650k |
| 31 Jan 2022 | Madureira | Tondela | Free / loan | €350k |
| 30 Nov 2021 | EC Vitória | Madureira | Free / loan | €450k |
| 11 Mar 2021 | Madureira | EC Vitória | Free / loan | €450k |
| 28 Feb 2021 | Vasco da Gama | Madureira | Free / loan | €450k |
| 3 Aug 2020 | Madureira | Vasco da Gama | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.