
Lubomir Satka
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Lubomir Satka's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-1.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 47
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 29.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €806k vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -47% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2146 (70% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.08
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.08
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 30 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1310
- Opponent strength
- 1265
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €447k – €1.2M
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 92% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -51% (IQR -60% to -48%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Samsunspor | Super Lig | CB | 27 | 2146 | 70% | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 1265 | 1310 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Samsunspor | Super Lig | CB | 31 | 2742 | 85% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 1281 | 1286 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Samsunspor | Super Lig | CB | 26 | 2208 | 65% | 1 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.13 | 1290 | 1217 | 0.45 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Samsunspor | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1398 |
| 2014/15 | Fa Cup | Newcastle United | 1 | 31 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonas Svensson Super Lig · 2024 | 31 | €1.7M | €500k | fell |
| Oleksandr Svatok Premier Liga · 2024 | 30 | €2.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Rodrigo Galo Super League 1 · 2017 | 31 | €1.3M | €600k | fell |
| Ömer Ali Şahiner Super Lig · 2021 | 29 | €1.7M | €1.1M | fell |
| Paul Hanlon Scottish Premiership · 2019 | 29 | €800k | €400k | fell |
| Denys Miroshnichenko Premier Liga · 2024 | 30 | €900k | €400k | fell |
| Uğur Çiftçi Super Lig · 2022 | 30 | €2.6M | €1.3M | fell |
| Fabrice N'Sakala Super Lig · 2020 | 30 | €1.2M | €150k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Samsunspor | Without Club | Unknown | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Lech Poznan | Samsunspor | Free / loan | €800k |
| 19 Jul 2019 | Dunajska Streda | Lech Poznan | €750k | €650k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Newcastle | Dunajska Streda | Free / loan | €250k |
| 30 Jun 2017 | Dunajska Streda | Newcastle | Free / loan | €250k |
| 9 Jan 2017 | Newcastle | Dunajska Streda | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 29 Feb 2016 | York City | Newcastle | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 29 Jan 2016 | Newcastle | York City | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 25 Mar 2014 | Newcastle U18 | Newcastle | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 14 May 2012 | Dubnica Yth. | Newcastle U18 | €100k | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.