Mads Agger
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mads Agger's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-1.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.19x the positional average in the league (1463 minutes, league coefficient 0.47). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 87
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 6.3th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €721k vs market €1.2M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -8% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1463 (74% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.43
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.47
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 6 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1242
- Opponent strength
- 1280
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €673k – €1.6M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 16 pts; team strength up (+181 Elo); league level up (+45 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -9% (IQR -32% to +31%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1463 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 20 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 78%–121%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 65%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Sönderjyske Fodbold | Superliga | RW | 21 | 1463 | 74% | 3 | 4 | 0.43 | 0.47 | 1280 | 1242 | 0.47 |
| 2024/25 | Sönderjyske Fodbold | Superliga | RW | 19 | 1151 | 58% | 4 | 2 | 0.47 | 0.56 | 1318 | 1062 | 0.38 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | Sönderjyske Fodbold | 1 | 69 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Oddset Pokalen | Sönderjyske Fodbold | 2 | 135 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petros Giakoumakis Super League 1 · 2018 | 26 | €750k | €350k | fell |
| Michalis Manias Super League 1 · 2016 | 26 | €800k | €1.0M | rose |
| Sergiy Myakushko Premier Liga · 2019 | 26 | €800k | €200k | fell |
| Amr Warda Super League 1 · 2020 | 27 | €1.0M | €1.5M | rose |
| Jordan Remacle Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 26 | €1.2M | €1.0M | flat |
| Marius Mouandilmadji Super Lig · 2024 | 26 | €1.5M | €7.0M | rose |
| Brian Mansilla Premier Liga · 2024 | 27 | €1.2M | €1.2M | flat |
| Aleksey Kashtanov Premier Liga · 2023 | 27 | €900k | €700k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Feb 2026 | Sönderjyske | Pogon Szczecin | €500k | €1.2M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Naestved BK | Sönderjyske | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Aug 2022 | Skive IK | Naestved BK | Free / loan | €100k |
| 6 Aug 2020 | Holstebro BK | Skive IK | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Holstebro U19 | Holstebro BK | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.