Elies Mahmoud
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Elies Mahmoud's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.60x the positional average in the league (1481 minutes, league coefficient 0.47). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 89
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 7.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €514k vs market €750k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +8% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1481 (75% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.24
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.24
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 7 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1278
- Opponent strength
- 1238
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €498k – €1.4M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -24% (IQR -43% to +41%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1481 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 20 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 78%–121%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 65%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Randers FC | Superliga | RW | 22 | 1481 | 75% | 2 | 2 | 0.24 | 0.24 | 1238 | 1278 | 0.47 |
| 2024/25 | Randers FC | Superliga | RM | 4 | 191 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 1352 | 1276 | 0.38 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | Randers FC | 2 | 125 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leandro Kappel Super League 1 · 2015 | 26 | €600k | €350k | fell |
| Abel Camará Liga Portugal · 2017 | 27 | €1.0M | €200k | fell |
| Thiago Santana Liga Portugal · 2020 | 27 | €550k | €1.6M | rose |
| Georgiy Melkadze Premier Liga · 2023 | 26 | €800k | €700k | flat |
| Alexandros Kouros Super League 1 · 2017 | 24 | €450k | €300k | fell |
| Edson Farias Liga Portugal · 2018 | 26 | €600k | €325k | fell |
| Rory McKenzie Scottish Premiership · 2020 | 27 | €300k | €400k | rose |
| Gelson Dala Liga Portugal · 2021 | 25 | €1.5M | €2.5M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Feb 2025 | StadeLO | Randers FC | €500k | €500k |
| 11 Jul 2023 | Le Havre AC | StadeLO | Unknown | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Châteauroux B | Le Havre AC | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Châteauroux U19 | Châteauroux B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.