Tobias Lauritsen
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Tobias Lauritsen's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-2.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.00x the positional average in the league (921 minutes, league coefficient 0.47). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 99
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 1.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €368k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +9% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 19% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 921 (47% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.22
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 1 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1098
- Opponent strength
- 1294
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 19%
- Resale range (24m)
- €538k – €2.1M
Trajectory drivers: league level up (+45 Elo); relative output down 52% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +28% (IQR -2% to +78%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 921 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 23 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–122%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 65%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Vejle Boldklub | Superliga | CM | 15 | 921 | 47% | 0 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.22 | 1294 | 1098 | 0.47 |
| 2024/25 | Vejle Boldklub | Superliga | CM | 14 | 1013 | 51% | 2 | 3 | 0.44 | 0.44 | 1277 | 1083 | 0.38 |
| 2023/24 | Vejle Boldklub | Superliga | CM | 15 | 679 | 34% | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.28 | 1307 | 1174 | 0.48 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | Vejle Boldklub | 3 | 172 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Oddset Pokalen | Vejle Boldklub | 1 | 74 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Oddset Pokalen | Vejle Boldklub | 2 | 181 | 1 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casper Winther Superliga · 2024 | 21 | €900k | €1.5M | rose |
| Jeppe Illum Superliga · 2015 | 23 | €400k | €250k | fell |
| William Carvalho Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 21 | €800k | €26.0M | rose |
| Kartal Yılmaz Super Lig · 2023 | 23 | €1.2M | €2.6M | rose |
| Ramiro Vaca Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 23 | €700k | €800k | flat |
| Victor Loturi Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 22 | €350k | €500k | rose |
| Mathijs Tielemans Eredivisie · 2024 | 22 | €800k | €350k | fell |
| Marius Elvius Superliga · 2024 | 22 | €750k | €850k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | Vejle BK U19 | Vejle BK | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2021 | Vejle BK Youth | Vejle BK U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | RB Youth | Vejle BK Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.