Kartal Yılmaz
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Kartal Yılmaz's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.9M-3.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.1M-3.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.78x the positional average in the league (516 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 27.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.8M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -26% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 516 (17% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.35
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.22
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 28 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1350
- Opponent strength
- 1200
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.1M – €3.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 70 pts; changed club; team strength up (+125 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -13% (IQR -40% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 516 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 35 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–144%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | Super Lig | DM | 13 | 516 | 17% | 0 | 2 | 0.35 | 0.22 | 1200 | 1350 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Kayserispor | Super Lig | DM | 33 | 2820 | 87% | 3 | 6 | 0.29 | 0.27 | 1287 | 1225 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Kayserispor | Super Lig | DM | 29 | 2409 | 70% | 0 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 1296 | 1208 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | Ümraniyespor | Super Lig | DM | 23 | 1431 | 44% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.13 | 1314 | 1164 | 0.50 |
| 2022/23 | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | Super Lig | DM | 3 | 123 | 4% | 0 | 1 | 0.73 | 0.16 | 1234 | 1517 | 0.50 |
| 2020/21 | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | Super Lig | CM | 1 | 8 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 1232 | 1408 | 0.37 |
| 2019/20 | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | Super Lig | AM | 5 | 30 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.31 | 1276 | 1401 | 0.45 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | 2 | 108 | 0 | 0 | 1427 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | 4 | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1283 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | 2 | 101 | 0 | 0 | 1517 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarkan Serbest Super Lig · 2020 | 26 | €800k | €800k | flat |
| Taylan Antalyalı Super Lig · 2020 | 25 | €950k | €3.5M | rose |
| Jimmy Durmaz Super League 1 · 2015 | 26 | €3.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Carel Eiting Eredivisie · 2024 | 26 | €2.3M | €1.4M | fell |
| Simon Tibbling Superliga · 2020 | 26 | €1.6M | €700k | fell |
| Lucas Fernandes Liga Portugal · 2021 | 24 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
| David Simão Liga Portugal · 2016 | 26 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
| Siebe Schrijvers Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 27 | €2.0M | €1.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2025 | Kayserispor | Besiktas | Free / loan | €2.6M |
| 15 Sept 2023 | Besiktas | Kayserispor | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Ümraniyespor | Besiktas | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 25 Aug 2022 | Besiktas | Ümraniyespor | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Ümraniyespor | Besiktas | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 21 Jan 2021 | Besiktas | Ümraniyespor | Free / loan | €100k |
| 20 Apr 2020 | Besiktas U19 | Besiktas | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Besiktas U21 | Besiktas U19 | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Feb 2018 | Besiktas U19 | Besiktas U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Besiktas U17 | Besiktas U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Besiktas U16 | Besiktas U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Besiktas Yth | Besiktas U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 24 Feb 2012 | Kocaeli BB Jgd | Besiktas Yth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.