Alioune Ndoye
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Alioune Ndoye's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-2.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.78x the positional average in the league (952 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 74
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 19.3th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €835k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +6% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 952 (31% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.38
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.39
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 19 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1361
- Opponent strength
- 1347
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €546k – €2.0M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +38% (IQR -45% to +81%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 952 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 71%–130%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 66%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | ST | 24 | 952 | 31% | 2 | 2 | 0.38 | 0.39 | 1347 | 1361 | 0.58 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aleksandar Boljevic Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 26 | €900k | €350k | fell |
| Renato Ibarra Eredivisie · 2016 | 25 | €1.8M | €2.5M | rose |
| Apostolos Giannou Super League 1 · 2013 | 23 | €600k | €800k | rose |
| Maor Buzaglo Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 25 | €600k | €1.0M | rose |
| Ronny Rodelin Ligue 1 · 2015 | 26 | €1.5M | €3.5M | rose |
| Diego Medeiros Liga Portugal · 2017 | 24 | €700k | €300k | fell |
| Denis Drăguș Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 24 | €1.4M | €3.5M | rose |
| Nadhir Benbouali Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 23 | €1.0M | €600k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Aug 2025 | Valmiera | Vit. Guimarães | €700k | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Servette FC | Valmiera | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 24 Jan 2025 | Valmiera | Servette FC | Free / loan | €500k |
| 25 Aug 2020 | Teungueth FC | Valmiera | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.