Aleksandr Kovalenko
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Aleksandr Kovalenko's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-2.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.72x the positional average in the league (1038 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 94
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 9.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €547k vs market €1.2M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -13% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 12% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1038 (38% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.16
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 10 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1197
- Opponent strength
- 1371
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- 12%
- Resale range (24m)
- €552k – €2.3M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; relative output down 23% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -1% (IQR -56% to +160%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1038 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 54%–153%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 56%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Sochi | Premier Liga | CM | 24 | 1038 | 38% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 1371 | 1197 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FC Orenburg | Premier Liga | CM | 17 | 779 | 29% | 0 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.20 | 1314 | 1202 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | CM | 6 | 60 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1287 | 1491 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | Premier Liga | CM | 23 | 1932 | 72% | 1 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.15 | 1313 | 1270 | 0.53 |
| 2021/22 | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | Premier Liga | CM | 12 | 472 | 17% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1347 | 1289 | 0.52 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Sochi | 4 | 333 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FC Orenburg | 4 | 172 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 8 | 320 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | 7 | 495 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Russian Cup | Chertanovo Moscow | 1 | 73 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonardo Lopes Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 23 | €1.2M | €2.0M | rose |
| Daleho Irandust Eredivisie · 2022 | 24 | €1.2M | €700k | fell |
| Artem Golubev Premier Liga · 2021 | 22 | €1.0M | €400k | fell |
| Rominigue Kouamé Jupiler Pro League · 2020 | 24 | €800k | €5.0M | rose |
| Vítor Gonçalves Liga Portugal · 2015 | 23 | €700k | €300k | fell |
| Mory Gbane Premier Liga · 2023 | 23 | €700k | €4.0M | rose |
| Satoshi Tanaka Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 21 | €650k | €1.3M | rose |
| Pedro Pelágio Liga Portugal · 2021 | 21 | €1.0M | €450k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jul 2025 | Orenburg | FK Sochi | €2.0M | €1.5M |
| 16 Aug 2024 | Zenit S-Pb | Orenburg | €2.0M | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | FK Sochi | Zenit S-Pb | €2.0M | €2.8M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | KS Samara | FK Sochi | Free / loan | €2.8M |
| 26 Jul 2022 | FK Sochi | KS Samara | Free / loan | €500k |
| 25 Jul 2022 | KS Samara | FK Sochi | €800k | €500k |
| 5 Feb 2022 | Chertanovo | KS Samara | €30k | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Chertanovo II | Chertanovo | Unknown | €25k |
| 1 Aug 2020 | Akad Chertanovo | Chertanovo II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.