Volnei
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Volnei's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 76
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 8.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €305k vs market €450k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -12% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1414 (60% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.06
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.12
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 8 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1104
- Opponent strength
- 1235
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €257k – €591k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -3% (IQR -17% to +3%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1414 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 55%–230%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Panserraikos Serres | Super League 1 | CB | 17 | 1414 | 60% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.12 | 1235 | 1104 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Panserraikos Serres | Super League 1 | CB | 4 | 360 | 15% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1349 | 1141 | 0.35 |
| 2023/24 | GD Estoril Praia | Liga Portugal | CB | 21 | 1474 | 48% | 0 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 1360 | 1279 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | GD Estoril Praia | Liga Portugal | CB | 1 | 8 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1365 | 1252 | 0.68 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | Panserraikos Serres | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marios Tsaousis Super League 1 · 2024 | 24 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Coll Donaldson Scottish Premiership · 2021 | 26 | €400k | €375k | flat |
| Lukas Engel Superliga · 2022 | 24 | €450k | €2.2M | rose |
| Alexandros Malis Super League 1 · 2022 | 25 | €300k | €250k | flat |
| Josh Flint Eredivisie · 2024 | 24 | €450k | €450k | flat |
| Theofanis Mavrommatis Super League 1 · 2022 | 25 | €350k | €400k | flat |
| Cebrail Karayel Super Lig · 2022 | 28 | €875k | €175k | fell |
| Hennos Asmelash Premier Liga · 2022 | 23 | €300k | €250k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jan 2025 | Estoril | Panserraikos | Free / loan | €500k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Oliveirense | Estoril | Free / loan | €650k |
| 31 Aug 2022 | Estoril | Oliveirense | Free / loan | €75k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Estoril U23 | Estoril | Unknown | €75k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Inter U20 | Estoril U23 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.