Isa Sakamoto
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Isa Sakamoto's performance-implied value at EUR 1.1M-3.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.0M-5.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.9M-8.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.96x the positional average in the league (2395 minutes, league coefficient 0.65). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 54
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 39.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €3.9M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +1% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 30% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2395 (89% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.30
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.39
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 40 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1348
- Opponent strength
- 1377
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 30%
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.9M – €8.3M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 64 pts; relative output down 36% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -17% (IQR -38% to +107%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 60 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 63%–142%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | KVC Westerlo | Jupiler Pro League | AM | 30 | 2395 | 89% | 4 | 4 | 0.30 | 0.39 | 1377 | 1348 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | KVC Westerlo | Jupiler Pro League | AM | 9 | 670 | 25% | 3 | 2 | 0.67 | 0.60 | 1347 | 1322 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Europe Play Offs | KVC Westerlo | 8 | 630 | 2 | 0 | 1357 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davy Pröpper Eredivisie · 2014 | 23 | €3.5M | €8.0M | rose |
| Didier Ndong Ligue 1 · 2016 | 22 | €4.0M | €8.0M | rose |
| Mahdi Camara Ligue 1 · 2021 | 23 | €5.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Tomás Händel Liga Portugal · 2024 | 24 | €7.0M | €6.0M | flat |
| Matus Bero Eredivisie · 2019 | 24 | €2.0M | €1.6M | fell |
| Ogenyi Onazi Super Lig · 2017 | 25 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Samuel Bastien Jupiler Pro League · 2020 | 24 | €4.8M | €2.2M | fell |
| Stephen Eustaquio Liga Portugal · 2021 | 25 | €4.0M | €12.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Gamba Osaka | KVC Westerlo | €600k | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | KVC Westerlo | Gamba Osaka | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 12 Jan 2025 | Gamba Osaka | KVC Westerlo | Free / loan | €700k |
| 31 Jan 2024 | Fagiano Okayama | Gamba Osaka | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Feb 2023 | Gamba Osaka | Fagiano Okayama | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Feb 2022 | Gamba U18 | Gamba Osaka | Unknown | €50k |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.