Giannis Apostolakis
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Giannis Apostolakis's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-2.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-3.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.78x the positional average in the league (1488 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 63
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 13.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €1.2M vs market €1.2M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +11% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 24% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1488 (64% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.06
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.17
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 14 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1225
- Opponent strength
- 1243
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 24%
- Resale range (24m)
- €609k – €3.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 27 pts; league level up (+40 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -7% (IQR -19% to +11%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1488 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 14 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 67%–189%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 64%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Omilos Filathlon Irakliou FC | Super League 1 | CM | 23 | 1488 | 64% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.17 | 1243 | 1225 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Omilos Filathlon Irakliou FC | Super League 1 | CM | 21 | 861 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 1267 | 1196 | 0.35 |
| 2023/24 | Omilos Filathlon Irakliou FC | Super League 1 | AM | 8 | 308 | 13% | 1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.52 | 1252 | 1173 | 0.42 |
| 2022/23 | Omilos Filathlon Irakliou FC | Super League 1 | CM | 2 | 38 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 1293 | 1170 | 0.37 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | Omilos Filathlon Irakliou FC | 7 | 427 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Kypello Elladas | Omilos Filathlon Irakliou FC | 5 | 141 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Kypello Elladas | Omilos Filathlon Irakliou FC | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magnus Christensen Superliga · 2019 | 22 | €700k | €600k | flat |
| Nick Bätzner Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 22 | €1.5M | €1.1M | fell |
| Aguibou Camara Super League 1 · 2024 | 23 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
| Ivan Basic Premier Liga · 2024 | 22 | €1.0M | €1.5M | rose |
| Ethan Erhahon Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 22 | €800k | €800k | flat |
| Florentin Matei Premier Liga · 2015 | 22 | €1.2M | €1.0M | flat |
| Jens Jakob Thomasen Superliga · 2018 | 22 | €600k | €400k | fell |
| Ryan Thomas Eredivisie · 2017 | 23 | €1.3M | €2.5M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | OFI Crete U19 | OFI Crete | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Sept 2020 | OFI Crete U17 | OFI Crete U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.