Nathan Gassama
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nathan Gassama's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-2.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-2.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-2.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 65
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 30.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €1.4M vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +10% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1787 (66% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.15
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.13
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 31 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1326
- Opponent strength
- 1330
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €820k – €2.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -21% (IQR -50% to +6%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1787 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 48%–200%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Baltika | Premier Liga | CB | 24 | 1787 | 66% | 0 | 3 | 0.15 | 0.13 | 1330 | 1326 | 0.56 |
| 2023/24 | FK Baltika | Premier Liga | CB | 15 | 1261 | 47% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1349 | 1187 | 0.49 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Baltika | 6 | 383 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FK Baltika | 7 | 424 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seth De Witte Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 26 | €1.2M | €1.5M | rose |
| Donny Gorter Eredivisie · 2013 | 25 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Pol García Jupiler Pro League · 2020 | 25 | €1.2M | €400k | fell |
| Vaclav Jemelka Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 26 | €1.0M | €1.8M | rose |
| João Afonso Liga Portugal · 2016 | 26 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Aleksandr Ektov Premier Liga · 2023 | 27 | €1.0M | €800k | fell |
| Ivan Miladinovic Premier Liga · 2020 | 26 | €800k | €800k | flat |
| Andriy Pylyavskyi Premier Liga · 2015 | 27 | €900k | €700k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2023 | Slavia Sofia | Baltika | €500k | €100k |
| 7 Jan 2023 | SO Cholet | Slavia Sofia | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | ESTAC Troyes B | SO Cholet | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | FC Nantes B | ESTAC Troyes B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | FC Nantes U19 | FC Nantes B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | FC Nantes U17 | FC Nantes U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.