Gilberto Batista
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Gilberto Batista's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.8M-2.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-3.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 87
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 23.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.1M vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +10% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 20% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1933 (63% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.03
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 24 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1279
- Opponent strength
- 1353
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 20%
- Resale range (24m)
- €852k – €3.4M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +6% (IQR -15% to +42%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Moreirense FC | Liga Portugal | CB | 28 | 1933 | 63% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1353 | 1279 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Moreirense FC | Liga Portugal | CB | 5 | 315 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1265 | 1271 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | Moreirense FC | Liga Portugal | CB | 4 | 226 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1298 | 1329 | 0.58 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philippe Sandler Eredivisie · 2018 | 21 | €2.5M | €3.5M | rose |
| Oleksandr Noyok Premier Liga · 2015 | 23 | €800k | €800k | flat |
| Cameron Humphreys Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 23 | €1.0M | €1.5M | rose |
| Khadim Rassoul Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 22 | €1.0M | €400k | fell |
| Bruno Godeau Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 23 | €800k | €900k | flat |
| Niels Nkounkou Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 22 | €2.2M | €7.5M | rose |
| Senna Miangue Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 24 | €700k | €600k | flat |
| Alexander Busch Superliga · 2024 | 21 | €1.2M | €1.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | Sporting B | Moreirense | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Sporting CP U23 | Sporting B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Sporting U19 | Sporting CP U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.