Igor Dmitriev
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Igor Dmitriev's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-3.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.2M-6.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.1M-8.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 39
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 42.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €4.4M vs market €3.5M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +16% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 21% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1170 (43% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.54
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.33
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 42 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1443
- Opponent strength
- 1341
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 21%
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.1M – €8.4M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+186 Elo); role change LW -> LB; relative output up 59% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +15% (IQR -15% to +25%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1170 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 48%–200%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | LB | 25 | 1170 | 43% | 1 | 6 | 0.54 | 0.33 | 1341 | 1443 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | Premier Liga | LW | 22 | 793 | 29% | 3 | 2 | 0.57 | 0.58 | 1308 | 1257 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | Ural Yekaterinburg | Premier Liga | LW | 26 | 1181 | 44% | 0 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.34 | 1325 | 1214 | 0.49 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 9 | 541 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | Ural Yekaterinburg | 8 | 426 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Björn Engels Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 22 | €6.5M | €6.0M | flat |
| Marcelo Saracchi Super Lig · 2020 | 22 | €9.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Sebastiaan Bornauw Jupiler Pro League · 2019 | 20 | €4.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Gerardo Arteaga Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 23 | €5.0M | €7.0M | rose |
| Adam Matthews Scottish Premiership · 2013 | 21 | €2.3M | €2.5M | flat |
| Hugo Siquet Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 19 | €5.0M | €3.3M | fell |
| Frank Acheampong Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 23 | €5.0M | €6.0M | rose |
| Ayrton Lucas Premier Liga · 2019 | 22 | €5.0M | €6.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2025 | KS Samara | Spartak Moscow | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 7 Aug 2024 | Spartak Moscow | KS Samara | Free / loan | €700k |
| 26 Jul 2024 | Ural | Spartak Moscow | €2.5M | €700k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Leningradets | Ural | €170k | €400k |
| 19 Jan 2021 | SShOR Zenit U16 | Leningradets | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2020 | DYuSSh Kolomyag | SShOR Zenit U16 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2017 | SShOR Zenit Y. | DYuSSh Kolomyag | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2016 | Zenit Youth | SShOR Zenit Y. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.