Hugo Rincón
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Hugo Rincón's performance-implied value at EUR 1.7M-5.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.8M-5.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.3M-6.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 70
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 48.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €3.5M vs market €3.5M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +21% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1741 (51% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.15
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.21
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 49 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1413
- Opponent strength
- 1513
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.3M – €6.9M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -45% (IQR -57% to +150%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1741 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Girona FC | Laliga | RB | 33 | 1741 | 51% | 1 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.21 | 1513 | 1413 | 0.95 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Girona FC | 2 | 187 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marios Ikonomou Serie A · 2016 | 24 | €2.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Óscar Gil Laliga · 2022 | 24 | €3.0M | €800k | fell |
| Álex Pozo Laliga · 2023 | 24 | €3.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Sime Vrsaljko Serie A · 2015 | 23 | €7.5M | €16.0M | rose |
| Frederik Sörensen Serie A · 2013 | 21 | €4.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Michael Keane Premier League · 2015 | 22 | €2.0M | €18.0M | rose |
| Joe Bennett Premier League · 2013 | 23 | €2.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Jackson Tchatchoua Serie A · 2024 | 23 | €3.0M | €12.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Girona | Athletic Club | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 29 Jul 2025 | Athletic Club | Girona | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | CD Mirandés | Athletic Club | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 11 Aug 2024 | Athletic Club | CD Mirandés | Free / loan | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Bilbao Athletic | Athletic Club | Unknown | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | CD Basconia | Bilbao Athletic | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Bilbao U18 | Bilbao U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Bilbao U19 | CD Basconia | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Bilbao Youth | Bilbao U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | CA Osasuna Yout | Bilbao Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.