Alejandro Rego
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Alejandro Rego's performance-implied value at EUR 2.9M-6.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.3M-9.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.9M-12.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.86x the positional average in the league (1265 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 63
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 54.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €5.6M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +26% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1265 (37% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.14
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.19
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 55 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1451
- Opponent strength
- 1510
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.9M – €12.8M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -14% (IQR -39% to +31%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1265 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | CM | 29 | 1265 | 37% | 1 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.19 | 1510 | 1451 | 0.95 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Athletic Bilbao | 8 | 500 | 0 | 0 | 1630 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 3 | 232 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Supercopa | Athletic Bilbao | 1 | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1800 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soner Aydoğdu Super Lig · 2013 | 22 | €4.2M | €2.0M | fell |
| Dodô Serie A · 2016 | 24 | €5.5M | €1.8M | fell |
| Danilo Cataldi Serie A · 2017 | 23 | €6.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Daniele Baselli Serie A · 2014 | 22 | €4.0M | €6.5M | rose |
| Simone Verdi Serie A · 2015 | 23 | €3.0M | €6.0M | rose |
| Samuele Birindelli Serie A · 2023 | 24 | €2.3M | €2.8M | rose |
| Jordan Zemura Serie A · 2024 | 25 | €5.0M | €5.0M | flat |
| Panagiotis Tachtsidis Serie A · 2014 | 23 | €3.0M | €2.2M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Bilbao Athletic | Athletic Club | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | CD Basconia | Bilbao Athletic | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Bilbao U19 | CD Basconia | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Bilbao U18 | Bilbao U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Bilbao Youth | Bilbao U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.