Gaspar
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Gaspar's performance-implied value at EUR 1.3M-5.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.9M-2.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.1M-3.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 84
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 58.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.2M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -28% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1830 (54% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 58 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1352
- Opponent strength
- 1478
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.1M – €3.1M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 58% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -26% (IQR -61% to +6%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | US Lecce | Serie A | CB | 23 | 1830 | 54% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1478 | 1352 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | US Lecce | Serie A | CB | 24 | 2145 | 63% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 1522 | 1351 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | CF Estrela Amadora | Liga Portugal | CB | 27 | 2350 | 77% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 1393 | 1185 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Africa Cup Of Nations | Angola | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | US Lecce | 2 | 158 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | US Lecce | 2 | 118 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Bronn Serie A · 2023 | 28 | €2.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Aly Cissokho Premier League · 2016 | 29 | €2.0M | €700k | fell |
| Ardian Ismajli Serie A · 2024 | 28 | €3.0M | €5.0M | rose |
| Nedum Onuoha Premier League · 2015 | 29 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
| Luca Ceppitelli Serie A · 2017 | 28 | €2.0M | €2.5M | rose |
| Fali Laliga · 2023 | 30 | €2.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Andrey Eshchenko Premier Liga · 2014 | 30 | €3.6M | €1.2M | fell |
| François Moubandje Ligue 1 · 2019 | 29 | €2.5M | €1.7M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Estrela Amadora | Lecce | €2.0M | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Sagrada | Estrela Amadora | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Unknown | Sagrada | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.