Houssem Mrezigue
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Houssem Mrezigue's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-1.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.04x the positional average in the league (2329 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 92
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 25.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €432k vs market €1.2M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -15% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2329 (86% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.12
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.13
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 26 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1214
- Opponent strength
- 1334
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €605k – €1.6M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 22 pts; relative output down 31% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -11% (IQR -37% to +45%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 54%–153%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 56%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dinamo Makhachkala | Premier Liga | DM | 28 | 2329 | 86% | 1 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.13 | 1334 | 1214 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | Dinamo Makhachkala | Premier Liga | DM | 22 | 1726 | 64% | 2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.19 | 1322 | 1233 | 0.55 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | Dinamo Makhachkala | 7 | 351 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | Dinamo Makhachkala | 4 | 137 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Costinha Liga Portugal · 2017 | 25 | €1.3M | €750k | fell |
| Mitchell Donald Eredivisie · 2014 | 26 | €1.3M | €2.0M | rose |
| Casper De Norre Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 25 | €1.3M | €2.8M | rose |
| Abdul Ajagun Eredivisie · 2017 | 24 | €850k | €500k | fell |
| Erik Falkenburg Eredivisie · 2014 | 26 | €850k | €900k | flat |
| Sergio Peña Eredivisie · 2020 | 25 | €1.2M | €1.7M | rose |
| Robin Henkens Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 26 | €800k | €600k | fell |
| Maksym Kalenchuk Premier Liga · 2017 | 28 | €700k | €450k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jul 2024 | CR Belouizdad | Dinamo Makhach. | €500k | €650k |
| 5 Feb 2024 | Vizela | CR Belouizdad | Free / loan | €800k |
| 29 Aug 2023 | CR Belouizdad | Vizela | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Oct 2020 | MC Alger U21 | CR Belouizdad | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | ES Sétif | MC Alger U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.