Max Balard
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Max Balard's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-1.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.50x the positional average in the league (2737 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 94
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 13.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €261k vs market €900k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -13% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2737 (89% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.03
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 13 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1118
- Opponent strength
- 1324
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €517k – €1.3M
Trajectory drivers: role change CM -> DM.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -48% (IQR -59% to -32%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–148%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | NAC Breda | Eredivisie | DM | 32 | 2737 | 89% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 1324 | 1118 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | NAC Breda | Eredivisie | CM | 33 | 2939 | 96% | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.12 | 1307 | 1125 | 0.50 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | NAC Breda | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | NAC Breda | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lasha Parunashvili Superliga · 2020 | 27 | €650k | €150k | fell |
| Jacob Lungi Sørensen Superliga · 2020 | 22 | €1.3M | €1.5M | flat |
| Thomas Wils Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 24 | €1.0M | €350k | fell |
| Sjoerd Overgoor Eredivisie · 2015 | 27 | €750k | €450k | fell |
| Yevgen Zaporozhets Premier Liga · 2021 | 27 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Viljormur Davidsen Superliga · 2019 | 28 | €350k | €150k | fell |
| Gregor Breinburg Eredivisie · 2017 | 26 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Mart Dijkstra Eredivisie · 2017 | 27 | €500k | €275k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Jul 2024 | Central Coast | NAC Breda | Free / loan | €450k |
| 1 Jan 2021 | CCM Academy | Central Coast | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.