Luciano Gondou
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Luciano Gondou's performance-implied value at EUR 1.9M-6.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.1M-9.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.7M-8.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.57x the positional average in the league (905 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 23
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 57.5th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €6.2M vs market €7.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -30% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 905 (34% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.20
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.31
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 58 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1489
- Opponent strength
- 1281
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.7M – €8.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 19 pts; changed club; team strength down (-68 Elo); role change RW -> ST; relative output down 42% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -42% (IQR -62% to +3%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ⚠Limited sample: 905 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 20 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–104%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 50%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | ST | 9 | 605 | 22% | 1 | 1 | 0.30 | 0.31 | 1281 | 1436 | 0.56 |
| 2025/26 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | ST | 14 | 300 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 1308 | 1597 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | RW | 23 | 1417 | 52% | 10 | 1 | 0.70 | 0.42 | 1290 | 1558 | 0.55 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 8 | 469 | 2 | 2 | — |
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 3 | 189 | 3 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 6 | 251 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emre Mor Super Lig · 2023 | 26 | €4.2M | €1.4M | fell |
| Sebastián Driussi Premier Liga · 2021 | 25 | €7.5M | €15.0M | rose |
| Roman Zozulya Premier Liga · 2015 | 26 | €5.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Tim Matavz Eredivisie · 2014 | 25 | €5.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Abdoulay Diaby Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 26 | €3.5M | €5.5M | rose |
| Luciano Narsingh Eredivisie · 2014 | 24 | €6.0M | €5.0M | flat |
| Derlis González Premier Liga · 2018 | 24 | €6.0M | €2.4M | fell |
| Tetê Super Lig · 2024 | 24 | €10.0M | €9.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Jan 2026 | Zenit S-Pb | CSKA Moscow | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 27 Aug 2024 | Argentinos Jrs. | Zenit S-Pb | €12.0M | €10.0M |
| 10 Jul 2023 | Sarmiento Junin | Argentinos Jrs. | €3.2M | €3.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Sarmiento II | Sarmiento Junin | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jan 2021 | Sarmiento U20 | Sarmiento II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 18 Nov 2020 | River Plate U20 | Sarmiento U20 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Sarmiento U20 | River Plate U20 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.