Amine Sbaï
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Amine Sbaï's performance-implied value at EUR 0.9M-2.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.6M-4.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.8M-5.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.86x the positional average in the league (1834 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 87
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 41.9th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €2.2M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -18% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1834 (60% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.20
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.35
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 42 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1306
- Opponent strength
- 1456
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.8M – €5.7M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -31% (IQR -38% to +11%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Angers SCO | Ligue 1 | LW | 25 | 1834 | 60% | 3 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.35 | 1456 | 1306 | 0.88 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Cristaldo Serie A · 2014 | 25 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Pontus Almqvist Serie A · 2024 | 25 | €3.0M | €1.8M | fell |
| Luis Caballero Premier Liga · 2014 | 24 | €2.5M | €1.8M | fell |
| Enzo Crivelli Ligue 1 · 2019 | 24 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Lucas Castro Serie A · 2014 | 25 | €3.8M | €5.5M | rose |
| Benjamin Moukandjo Ligue 1 · 2013 | 25 | €2.0M | €2.5M | rose |
| Sefa Yilmaz Super Lig · 2014 | 24 | €3.3M | €3.5M | flat |
| Jacques Zoua Ligue 1 · 2016 | 25 | €2.0M | €500k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Oct 2025 | Without Club | Angers SCO | Unknown | €750k |
| 20 Sept 2025 | Al-Fateh | Without Club | Unknown | €750k |
| 30 Aug 2024 | Grenoble | Al-Fateh | Unknown | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | FC Sète 34 | Grenoble | Free / loan | €450k |
| 8 Jul 2021 | Olympique Alès | FC Sète 34 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Le Crès FC | Olympique Alès | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.