Semih Kılıçsoy
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Semih Kılıçsoy's performance-implied value at EUR 2.1M-7.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 8.4M-17.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.1M-21.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.10x the positional average in the league (975 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 41
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 46.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 20.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €12.2M vs market €11.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +3% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 19% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 975 (28% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.37
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.56
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 47 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1376
- Opponent strength
- 1484
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- 19%
- Resale range (24m)
- €6.1M – €21.1M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; league level up (+223 Elo); relative output up 43% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -32% (IQR -59% to +32%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 975 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Cagliari Calcio | Serie A | ST | 22 | 975 | 29% | 4 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.56 | 1484 | 1376 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | Super Lig | ST | 32 | 1303 | 40% | 3 | 4 | 0.48 | 0.41 | 1272 | 1340 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | Super Lig | LW | 23 | 1687 | 49% | 11 | 3 | 0.75 | 0.54 | 1285 | 1336 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | Super Lig | ST | 4 | 41 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.36 | 1245 | 1517 | 0.50 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Cagliari Calcio | 3 | 114 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | 2 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 1427 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | 8 | 413 | 1 | 2 | 1512 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | 1 | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1378 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | 4 | 78 | 1 | 0 | 1319 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ângelo Ligue 1 · 2024 | 20 | €15.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Emanuel Vignato Serie A · 2021 | 21 | €6.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Dion Beljo Bundesliga · 2023 | 21 | €6.5M | €4.0M | fell |
| Andrea Belotti Serie A · 2015 | 22 | €5.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| El Bilal Touré Ligue 1 · 2022 | 21 | €6.5M | €20.0M | rose |
| Yann Karamoh Serie A · 2020 | 22 | €9.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Patrick Cutrone Serie A · 2020 | 22 | €15.5M | €3.5M | fell |
| Javairô Dilrosun Bundesliga · 2019 | 21 | €12.0M | €9.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Cagliari | Besiktas | Free / loan | €11.0M |
| 3 Aug 2025 | Besiktas | Cagliari | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 5 May 2023 | Besiktas U19 | Besiktas | Unknown | €150k |
| 4 Aug 2020 | Besiktas Yth | Besiktas U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.