Renaldo Cephas
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Renaldo Cephas's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.35x the positional average in the league (1126 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 88
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 7.2th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €460k vs market €900k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -21% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1126 (42% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.32
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.55
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 7 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1176
- Opponent strength
- 1352
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €466k – €1.2M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -2% (IQR -23% to +31%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1126 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 20 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–104%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 50%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Nizhny Novgorod | Premier Liga | LW | 25 | 1126 | 42% | 1 | 3 | 0.32 | 0.55 | 1352 | 1176 | 0.56 |
| 2023/24 | MKE Ankaragücü | Super Lig | LW | 31 | 1619 | 47% | 3 | 3 | 0.33 | 0.45 | 1342 | 1218 | 0.45 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Nizhny Novgorod | 4 | 140 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FC Shkupi | 4 | 356 | 4 | 0 | 1313 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Róchez Liga Portugal · 2021 | 26 | €600k | €500k | flat |
| Patrick Joosten Eredivisie · 2022 | 26 | €800k | €325k | fell |
| Michael Breij Eredivisie · 2022 | 25 | €500k | €450k | flat |
| Joseph Efford Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 25 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Craig Goodwin Eredivisie · 2017 | 26 | €700k | €750k | flat |
| Kikas Liga Portugal · 2024 | 26 | €800k | €1.0M | rose |
| Evans Kangwa Super Lig · 2017 | 25 | €800k | €1.5M | rose |
| Frédéric Gounongbe Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 27 | €1.0M | €1.5M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jul 2025 | Ankaragücü | Pari NN | Free / loan | €1.3M |
| 8 Aug 2023 | FC Shkupi | Ankaragücü | €400k | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Arnett Gardens | FC Shkupi | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2018 | Allman/Woodford | Arnett Gardens | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.