Kikas
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Kikas's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.39x the positional average in the league (1212 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 60
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 20.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €679k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -26% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1212 (40% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.52
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.70
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 20 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1195
- Opponent strength
- 1326
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €462k – €1000k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 29 pts; relative output up 44% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -46% (IQR -51% to -21%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1212 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 71%–130%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 66%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | CF Estrela Amadora | Liga Portugal | ST | 17 | 1212 | 40% | 6 | 1 | 0.52 | 0.70 | 1326 | 1195 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | CF Estrela Amadora | Liga Portugal | ST | 32 | 2106 | 69% | 6 | 1 | 0.30 | 0.51 | 1335 | 1152 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | CF Estrela Amadora | Liga Portugal | ST | 31 | 1561 | 51% | 8 | 1 | 0.52 | 0.71 | 1355 | 1185 | 0.58 |
| 2019/20 | B SAD | Liga Portugal | ST | 12 | 520 | 17% | 1 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.51 | 1396 | 1243 | 0.59 |
| 2018/19 | B SAD | Liga Portugal | ST | 15 | 658 | 22% | 5 | 1 | 0.82 | 0.67 | 1361 | 1313 | 0.65 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chigozie Udoji Super League 1 · 2014 | 28 | €750k | €350k | fell |
| Regan Charles-Cook Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 27 | €650k | €600k | flat |
| Kuca Liga Portugal · 2017 | 28 | €800k | €350k | fell |
| Marc Höcher Eredivisie · 2014 | 30 | €500k | €250k | fell |
| Lazaros Lamprou Eredivisie · 2023 | 26 | €600k | €450k | fell |
| Louis Moult Scottish Premiership · 2018 | 26 | €750k | €400k | fell |
| Anice Badri Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 26 | €800k | €1.2M | rose |
| Georgiy Gongadze Premier Liga · 2023 | 27 | €900k | €500k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Jan 2026 | Estrela Amadora | KAS Eupen | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | B SAD | Estrela Amadora | Free / loan | €475k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Estrela Amadora | B SAD | Free / loan | €475k |
| 31 Jan 2023 | B SAD | Estrela Amadora | Free / loan | €475k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Leiria | B SAD | Free / loan | €350k |
| 31 Jan 2022 | B SAD | Leiria | Free / loan | €350k |
| 31 Dec 2021 | Mafra | B SAD | Free / loan | €350k |
| 13 Jul 2021 | B SAD | Mafra | Free / loan | €350k |
| 31 May 2021 | Doxa Katokopias | B SAD | Free / loan | €350k |
| 4 Sept 2020 | B SAD | Doxa Katokopias | Free / loan | €300k |
| 30 Jun 2020 | Vilafranquense | B SAD | Free / loan | €300k |
| 31 Jan 2020 | B SAD | Vilafranquense | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | BC Branco | B SAD | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 21 Jul 2017 | Vitória SC U19 | BC Branco | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Vitória SC U17 | Vitória SC U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | D.C. Branco S17 | Vitória SC U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | D.C. Branco S15 | D.C. Branco S17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | C.Branco For. | D.C. Branco S15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Sporting Yth. | C.Branco For. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | C.Branco For. | Sporting Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.