Óscar Rivas
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Óscar Rivas's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-2.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 57
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 34.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €919k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -2% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1620 (53% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.06
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 35 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1361
- Opponent strength
- 1301
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €596k – €1.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 27 pts; relative output down 25% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -37% (IQR -54% to -19%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1620 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | CB | 18 | 1620 | 53% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 1301 | 1361 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | CB | 10 | 797 | 26% | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 1341 | 1412 | 0.51 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yevgen Selin Premier Liga · 2015 | 27 | €1.0M | €600k | fell |
| Maksim Nenakhov Premier Liga · 2023 | 25 | €1.5M | €3.0M | rose |
| Kasper Larsen Eredivisie · 2017 | 24 | €1.0M | €800k | fell |
| Pedro Rebocho Liga Portugal · 2021 | 26 | €1.5M | €700k | fell |
| Leon Guwara Eredivisie · 2020 | 24 | €725k | €600k | flat |
| Rami Kaib Eredivisie · 2022 | 25 | €700k | €300k | fell |
| Nikolay Zolotov Premier Liga · 2021 | 27 | €600k | €400k | fell |
| Elmir Nabiullin Premier Liga · 2020 | 25 | €2.0M | €900k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Jul 2024 | AD Alcorcón | Vit. Guimarães | €85k | €300k |
| 1 Jan 2022 | AD Alcorcón B | AD Alcorcón | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | CD Móstoles | AD Alcorcón B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 17 Jul 2019 | Getafe U19 | CD Móstoles | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Atl. Madrid U17 | Getafe U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Atlético Yth. | Atl. Madrid U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.