Denys Nagnoynyi
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Denys Nagnoynyi's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.73x the positional average in the league (1308 minutes, league coefficient 0.25). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 98
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €173k vs market €350k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +4% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1308 (48% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.07
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.29
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 1 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1042
- Opponent strength
- 1188
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €237k – €487k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -21% to +24%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1308 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 37 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 87%–128%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 86%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Kudrivka | Premier Liga | AM | 22 | 1308 | 48% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.29 | 1188 | 1042 | 0.25 |
| 2023/24 | Zorya Lugansk | Premier Liga | AM | 11 | 581 | 22% | 1 | 2 | 0.46 | 0.37 | 1232 | 1235 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | Zorya Lugansk | Premier Liga | ST | 13 | 496 | 18% | 1 | 1 | 0.36 | 0.41 | 1274 | 1406 | 0.38 |
| 2020/21 | Zorya Lugansk | Premier Liga | RW | 1 | 20 | 1% | 0 | 1 | 4.50 | 0.36 | 1281 | 1450 | 0.49 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | Ukrainian Cup | Zorya Lugansk | 1 | 85 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Zorya Lugansk | 2 | 139 | 1 | 0 | 1363 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Loturi Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 23 | €500k | €1.2M | rose |
| Sergiy Kosovskyi Premier Liga · 2024 | 26 | €300k | €200k | fell |
| Oleg Slobodyan Premier Liga · 2024 | 28 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| James Brown Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 25 | €325k | €325k | flat |
| Klodian Gjino Super League 1 · 2019 | 25 | €250k | €200k | fell |
| Josh Reid Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 22 | €200k | €150k | fell |
| Stephen Kelly Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 24 | €550k | €550k | flat |
| James Penrice Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 26 | €600k | €2.5M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | FC Kudrivka | Metalist 1925 | Free / loan | €350k |
| 31 Jul 2025 | Metalist 1925 | FC Kudrivka | Free / loan | €250k |
| 4 Jul 2024 | Zorya Lugansk | Metalist 1925 | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Zorya U19 | Zorya Lugansk | Unknown | €50k |
| 9 Aug 2019 | Olimpik K | Zorya U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.