Hugo Álvarez
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Hugo Álvarez's performance-implied value at EUR 5.9M-15.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.9M-12.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.0M-13.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.97x the positional average in the league (1337 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 54
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 62.1th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €7.8M vs market €8.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +2% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 23% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1337 (39% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.40
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.40
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 62 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1498
- Opponent strength
- 1477
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 23%
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.0M – €13.4M
Trajectory drivers: role change LM -> LW.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -37% (IQR -48% to +11%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1337 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | LW | 28 | 1337 | 39% | 4 | 2 | 0.40 | 0.39 | 1477 | 1498 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | LM | 26 | 1570 | 46% | 4 | 3 | 0.40 | 0.26 | 1529 | 1476 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | LW | 12 | 763 | 22% | 1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.38 | 1467 | 1449 | 1.00 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 3 | 330 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Celta de Vigo | 7 | 255 | 0 | 1 | 1521 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 2 | 112 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 4 | 123 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riccardo Sottil Serie A · 2022 | 23 | €9.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Vitinha Ligue 1 · 2024 | 24 | €14.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Vaclav Kadlec Bundesliga · 2014 | 22 | €5.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Luis Muriel Serie A · 2015 | 24 | €10.0M | €17.0M | rose |
| Keito Nakamura Ligue 1 · 2024 | 24 | €9.0M | €10.0M | flat |
| Maciej Rybus Premier Liga · 2014 | 25 | €4.5M | €5.0M | flat |
| Ignatius Ganago Ligue 1 · 2022 | 23 | €5.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Chadrac Akolo Bundesliga · 2018 | 23 | €5.0M | €1.6M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Jul 2024 | Celta Fortuna | Celta de Vigo | Unknown | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Celta U19 | Celta Vigo B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Celta Vigo Yth. | Celta U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.