Pavlos Pantelidis
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Pavlos Pantelidis's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-2.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-2.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.65x the positional average in the league (1328 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 72
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 11.1th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €934k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +16% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1328 (57% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.61
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.77
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 11 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1241
- Opponent strength
- 1275
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €632k – €2.5M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -18% (IQR -36% to +15%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1328 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 19 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 99%–112%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 47%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Athlitiki Enosi Kifisias | Super League 1 | RW | 13 | 1006 | 43% | 7 | 1 | 0.72 | 0.77 | 1275 | 1169 | 0.43 |
| 2025/26 | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | Super League 1 | RW | 7 | 322 | 14% | 0 | 1 | 0.28 | 0.27 | 1233 | 1465 | 0.43 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 2 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | Athlitiki Enosi Kifisias | 1 | 26 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Kypello Elladas | Ilioupoli | 1 | 62 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louicius Deedson Superliga · 2024 | 23 | €1.2M | €1.2M | flat |
| Aleksandar Katai Super League 1 · 2014 | 23 | €600k | €2.8M | rose |
| Paolo Fernandes Super League 1 · 2023 | 25 | €1.2M | €800k | fell |
| Jetmir Topalli Super Lig · 2023 | 25 | €900k | €800k | flat |
| Luka Milunovic Super League 1 · 2016 | 24 | €600k | €350k | fell |
| Abdoulay Diaby Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 24 | €2.0M | €3.5M | rose |
| Loris Brogno Eredivisie · 2017 | 25 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Adrián Riera Super League 1 · 2022 | 26 | €600k | €450k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Jan 2026 | Kifisia | Panathinaikos | €800k | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Ilioupoli | Kifisia | Free / loan | €200k |
| 4 Sept 2023 | Kifisia | Ilioupoli | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 6 Aug 2023 | Thyella Rafinas | Kifisia | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | PAO U17 | Thyella Rafinas | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.