Pablo Durán
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Pablo Durán's performance-implied value at EUR 3.7M-11.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.3M-5.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.8M-5.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.67x the positional average in the league (1425 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 46
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 59th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €3.8M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -8% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1425 (42% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.25
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.34
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 59 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1498
- Opponent strength
- 1509
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.8M – €5.7M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 39% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -39% (IQR -62% to +6%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1425 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | ST | 30 | 1425 | 42% | 2 | 2 | 0.25 | 0.34 | 1509 | 1498 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | ST | 27 | 1394 | 41% | 4 | 4 | 0.52 | 0.58 | 1519 | 1476 | 0.95 |
| 2022/23 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | ST | 4 | 32 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.55 | 1452 | 1441 | 0.98 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Celta de Vigo | 9 | 394 | 3 | 0 | 1507 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 1 | 57 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 4 | 261 | 2 | 2 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 1 | 34 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Gradel Ligue 1 · 2013 | 26 | €4.0M | €6.5M | rose |
| Hélder Barbosa Liga Portugal · 2013 | 26 | €5.0M | €1.3M | fell |
| Felipe Caicedo Premier Liga · 2013 | 25 | €8.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Sandro Ramírez Laliga · 2022 | 27 | €3.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Maicón Premier Liga · 2013 | 23 | €4.0M | €4.0M | flat |
| Jefferson Montero Premier League · 2016 | 27 | €5.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Romain Del Castillo Ligue 1 · 2019 | 23 | €3.5M | €4.5M | rose |
| Lorenzo Melgarejo Premier Liga · 2015 | 25 | €5.0M | €3.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Jul 2024 | Celta Fortuna | Celta de Vigo | Unknown | €300k |
| 8 Aug 2022 | SD Compostela | Celta Vigo B | Unknown | €250k |
| 5 Jul 2021 | Porriño FC | SD Compostela | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Unknown | Porriño FC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.