Du Queiroz
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Du Queiroz's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-1.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.61x the positional average in the league (1712 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 79
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 18.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €878k vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -22% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1712 (63% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.26
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.35
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 19 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1218
- Opponent strength
- 1349
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €698k – €1.8M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -34% (IQR -41% to -10%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1712 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 54%–153%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 56%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Orenburg | Premier Liga | CM | 24 | 1712 | 63% | 2 | 3 | 0.26 | 0.35 | 1349 | 1218 | 0.56 |
| 2023/24 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | DM | 10 | 211 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1282 | 1491 | 0.49 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FC Orenburg | 5 | 323 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 5 | 314 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Super Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 1 | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1447 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Bicfalvi Premier Liga · 2014 | 26 | €1.2M | €1.3M | flat |
| Paul McGowan Scottish Premiership · 2013 | 26 | €850k | €550k | fell |
| Martin Kramaric Premier Liga · 2024 | 27 | €800k | €700k | flat |
| Tino-Sven Susic Eredivisie · 2019 | 27 | €1.3M | €400k | fell |
| Christophe Lepoint Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 29 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
| Krisztián Vadócz Superliga · 2013 | 28 | €1.0M | €600k | fell |
| Jordy Bruijn Eredivisie · 2022 | 26 | €800k | €450k | fell |
| Kristiyan Malinov Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 27 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Orenburg | Zenit S-Pb | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 19 Aug 2025 | Zenit S-Pb | Orenburg | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 18 Aug 2025 | Sport Recife | Zenit S-Pb | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 26 Feb 2025 | Zenit S-Pb | Sport Recife | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 31 Dec 2024 | Grêmio | Zenit S-Pb | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 12 Feb 2024 | Zenit S-Pb | Grêmio | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Corinthians | Zenit S-Pb | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 1 Mar 2021 | Corinthians U20 | Corinthians | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.