Pablo Marín
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Pablo Marín's performance-implied value at EUR 3.3M-10.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.2M-11.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.4M-10.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.61x the positional average in the league (1494 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 46
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 53.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €6.4M vs market €7.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -11% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 20% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1494 (44% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.06
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.24
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 54 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1462
- Opponent strength
- 1483
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- 20%
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.4M – €10.7M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -44% (IQR -58% to +17%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1494 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | AM | 34 | 1494 | 44% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.24 | 1483 | 1462 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | AM | 23 | 1236 | 36% | 1 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 1515 | 1464 | 0.95 |
| 2022/23 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | AM | 10 | 356 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 1513 | 1604 | 0.98 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 6 | 335 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Real Sociedad | 9 | 552 | 1 | 0 | 1500 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 6 | 373 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 5 | 218 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Real Sociedad | 2 | 103 | 0 | 0 | 1556 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Woltemade Bundesliga · 2024 | 22 | €4.0M | €55.0M | rose |
| Stefano Sensi Serie A · 2017 | 22 | €4.5M | €18.0M | rose |
| Barry Bannan Premier League · 2013 | 24 | €5.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| Danilo Cataldi Serie A · 2017 | 23 | €6.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Soner Aydoğdu Super Lig · 2013 | 22 | €4.2M | €2.0M | fell |
| Matheus Henrique Serie A · 2022 | 25 | €11.0M | €8.5M | fell |
| Vincent Koziello Ligue 1 · 2018 | 23 | €4.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Dodô Serie A · 2016 | 24 | €5.5M | €1.8M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Real Sociedad B | Real Sociedad | Unknown | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Real Sociedad C | Real Sociedad B | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | R. Sociedad U19 | Real Sociedad C | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Real Sociedad Y | R. Sociedad U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.