Nick Woltemade
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nick Woltemade's performance-implied value at EUR 21.1M-42.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 41.7M-79.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 26.5M-67.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.85x the positional average in the league (2004 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 9
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 91.9th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €62.1M vs market €55.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -27% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2004 (59% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.49
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.43
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 92 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1628
- Opponent strength
- 1584
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €26.5M – €67.6M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+97 Elo); league level up (+120 Elo); role change SS -> ST; relative output down 26% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -32% (IQR -46% to +2%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Newcastle United | Premier League | ST | 33 | 1914 | 56% | 8 | 3 | 0.52 | 0.43 | 1584 | 1631 | 1.30 |
| 2025/26 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | ST | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 1394 | 1567 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | SS | 28 | 1620 | 53% | 12 | 2 | 0.78 | 0.56 | 1473 | 1531 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | AM | 30 | 1184 | 39% | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.26 | 1511 | 1459 | 1.01 |
| 2020/21 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | ST | 6 | 143 | 5% | 0 | 1 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 1521 | 1384 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | ST | 5 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.49 | 1516 | 1428 | 1.06 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Newcastle United | 10 | 654 | 1 | 1 | 1610 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Newcastle United | 3 | 282 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1760 |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 49 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 419 | 5 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | SV 07 Elversberg | 1 | 17 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | SV Werder Bremen | 2 | 19 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | SV Werder Bremen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dejan Kulusevski Premier League · 2023 | 23 | €50.0M | €50.0M | flat |
| Jadon Sancho Premier League · 2023 | 23 | €45.0M | €28.0M | fell |
| Santi Mina Laliga · 2019 | 24 | €30.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Sergio Agüero Premier League · 2013 | 25 | €45.0M | €60.0M | rose |
| Anthony Martial Premier League · 2019 | 24 | €60.0M | €45.0M | fell |
| Álvaro Morata Premier League · 2018 | 26 | €65.0M | €36.0M | fell |
| Gabriel Jesus Premier League · 2023 | 26 | €75.0M | €32.0M | fell |
| Marcus Rashford Premier League · 2019 | 22 | €80.0M | €85.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Aug 2025 | Stuttgart | Newcastle | €75.0M | €30.0M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Werder Bremen | Stuttgart | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | SV Elversberg | Werder Bremen | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 30 Aug 2022 | Werder Bremen | SV Elversberg | Free / loan | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | W. Bremen U19 | Werder Bremen | Unknown | €325k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | W. Bremen U17 | W. Bremen U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | W. Bremen Yth. | W. Bremen U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Woltmersh. Jgd. | W. Bremen Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.