Kostyantyn Bychek
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Kostyantyn Bychek's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.76x the positional average in the league (555 minutes, league coefficient 0.25). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 0th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €187k vs market €250k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -8% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 555 (21% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.38
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 0 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1070
- Opponent strength
- 1158
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €133k – €294k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 16 pts; relative output down 37% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -3% (IQR -18% to +11%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 555 league minutes last season.
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 87%–104%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 94%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Obolon Kyiv | Premier Liga | ST | 18 | 555 | 21% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.38 | 1158 | 1070 | 0.25 |
| 2024/25 | Obolon Kyiv | Premier Liga | ST | 19 | 986 | 37% | 2 | 1 | 0.27 | 0.64 | 1201 | 1098 | 0.28 |
| 2023/24 | TOV FK Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | Premier Liga | LW | 18 | 534 | 20% | 0 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.46 | 1292 | 1061 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | TOV FK Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | Premier Liga | ST | 21 | 1190 | 44% | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.44 | 1301 | 1162 | 0.38 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Ukrainian Cup | Obolon Kyiv | 1 | 22 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Bolingi Super Lig · 2021 | 27 | €400k | €600k | rose |
| Josh Sims Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 26 | €400k | €375k | flat |
| Oli Shaw Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 25 | €300k | €250k | flat |
| Jonah Ayunga Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 27 | €450k | €350k | fell |
| Ester Sokler Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 25 | €400k | €1.5M | rose |
| Nikola Trujic Super League 1 · 2021 | 29 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Jordy Hiwula Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 29 | €300k | €150k | fell |
| Chris Kane Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 30 | €350k | €350k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Jul 2024 | Metalist 1925 | Obolon | Free / loan | €250k |
| 15 Aug 2022 | Nyva Ternopil | Metalist 1925 | Free / loan | €75k |
| 23 Jul 2021 | Karpaty | Nyva Ternopil | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 4 Sept 2020 | Karpaty II | Karpaty | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 11 Apr 2019 | Ol. Donetsk U19 | Karpaty II | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Sept 2017 | Zirka U17 | Ol. Donetsk U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.