Ertuğrul Taşkıran
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ertuğrul Taşkıran's performance-implied value at EUR 0.1M-0.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-0.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.0M-0.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Market value below EUR 250k (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Average | 43.4th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 36.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €94k vs market €100k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -5% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1800 (59% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 43 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1229
- Opponent strength
- 1273
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €44k – €101k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 36 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -29% (IQR -50% to -15%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 37: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 138 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–145%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 59%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Alanyaspor | Super Lig | GK | 20 | 1800 | 59% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1273 | 1229 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Alanyaspor | Super Lig | GK | 34 | 3060 | 94% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1279 | 1247 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Alanyaspor | Super Lig | GK | 34 | 3060 | 89% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1284 | 1313 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | Kasimpasa | Super Lig | GK | 18 | 1620 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1285 | 1295 | 0.50 |
| 2021/22 | Kasimpasa | Super Lig | GK | 27 | 2362 | 69% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1258 | 1312 | 0.42 |
| 2020/21 | Kasimpasa | Super Lig | GK | 19 | 1710 | 48% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1295 | 1208 | 0.37 |
| 2019/20 | Konyaspor | Super Lig | GK | 10 | 808 | 26% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1402 | 1226 | 0.45 |
| 2018/19 | Konyaspor | Super Lig | GK | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1304 | 1333 | 0.58 |
| 2016/17 | Fenerbahce | Super Lig | GK | 1 | 21 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1263 | 1547 | 0.62 |
| 2014/15 | Sivasspor | Super Lig | GK | 20 | 1800 | 59% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1423 | 1364 | 0.72 |
| 2013/14 | Kayserispor | Super Lig | GK | 13 | 1170 | 38% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1483 | 1336 | 0.78 |
| 2012/13 | Kayserispor | Super Lig | GK | 30 | 2620 | 86% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1401 | 1498 | 0.89 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Fenerbahce | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1517 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikolaos Papadopoulos Super League 1 · 2024 | 34 | €250k | €125k | fell |
| Trevor Carson Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 36 | €150k | €25k | fell |
| Bogdan Kogut Premier Liga · 2024 | 37 | €100k | €75k | fell |
| Oleksandr Bandura Premier Liga · 2024 | 38 | €150k | €150k | flat |
| Rafael Bracali Liga Portugal · 2017 | 36 | €200k | €100k | fell |
| Sammy Bossut Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 37 | €150k | €100k | fell |
| Mark Brown Scottish Premiership · 2015 | 34 | €250k | €200k | fell |
| Emiliano Viviano Super Lig · 2023 | 38 | €100k | €300k | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Jul 2023 | Kasimpasa | Alanyaspor | Free / loan | €100k |
| 4 Sept 2020 | Konyaspor | Kasimpasa | Free / loan | €150k |
| 10 Jul 2018 | Boluspor | Konyaspor | Free / loan | €50k |
| 21 Jul 2017 | Fenerbahçe | Boluspor | Unknown | €400k |
| 30 Jun 2015 | Sivasspor | Fenerbahçe | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 1 Sept 2014 | Fenerbahçe | Sivasspor | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 30 Jun 2014 | Kayserispor | Fenerbahçe | Free / loan | €2.8M |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Fenerbahçe | Kayserispor | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2012 | Samsunspor | Fenerbahçe | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 5 Sept 2011 | Fenerbahçe | Samsunspor | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Fenerbahce U21 | Fenerbahçe | Unknown | €50k |
| 30 Jul 2007 | Kartalspor U21 | Fenerbahce U21 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2007 | Fenerbahce U21 | Kartalspor U21 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 26 Jul 2006 | Kartalspor U21 | Fenerbahce U21 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 11 Jul 2005 | Kartalspor Yth | Kartalspor U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.