Luc De Fougerolles
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Luc De Fougerolles's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-3.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-4.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 57
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 9.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 20.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €1.2M vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +31% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 21% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1460 (54% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.06
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.08
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 9 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1207
- Opponent strength
- 1372
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 21%
- Resale range (24m)
- €632k – €4.0M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +5% (IQR -1% to +60%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1460 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 76 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 67%–160%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FCV Dender EH | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 23 | 1460 | 54% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 1372 | 1207 | 0.65 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Canada | 3 | 251 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Relegation Play Offs | FCV Dender EH | 4 | 195 | 0 | 0 | 1300 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodrigo Guth Eredivisie · 2022 | 22 | €750k | €2.5M | rose |
| Philipe Sampaio Liga Portugal · 2015 | 21 | €800k | €1.0M | rose |
| Modou Tambedou Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 20 | €1.0M | €1.0M | flat |
| Cristian Cuevas Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 22 | €900k | €1.0M | flat |
| Bambo Diaby Jupiler Pro League · 2019 | 22 | €500k | €475k | flat |
| Andriy Tsurikov Premier Liga · 2013 | 21 | €700k | €500k | fell |
| Guga Liga Portugal · 2024 | 21 | €700k | €700k | flat |
| Lennart Czyborra Eredivisie · 2019 | 20 | €750k | €3.5M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | FCV Dender EH | Fulham U21 | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 30 Jul 2025 | Fulham U21 | FCV Dender EH | Free / loan | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Fulham U18 | Fulham U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Fulham Youth | Fulham U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.