Edgardo Fariña
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Edgardo Fariña's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 70
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 9.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €665k vs market €900k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -11% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1084 (40% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.05
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 9 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1176
- Opponent strength
- 1372
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €457k – €1.6M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; relative output down 77% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -20% (IQR -41% to +7%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1084 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 48%–200%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Nizhny Novgorod | Premier Liga | CB | 14 | 1084 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1372 | 1176 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FC Khimki (-2025) | Premier Liga | CB | 14 | 1080 | 40% | 3 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.22 | 1320 | 1204 | 0.55 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Nizhny Novgorod | 4 | 171 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FC Khimki (-2025) | 3 | 225 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omurwa Liga Portugal · 2024 | 26 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Diego Luna Premier Liga · 2024 | 24 | €800k | €500k | fell |
| Kevin Andrade Premier Liga · 2024 | 25 | €1.0M | €3.5M | rose |
| Marquinhos Pedroso Super Lig · 2017 | 24 | €1.0M | €700k | fell |
| Pavel Cmovs Eredivisie · 2013 | 23 | €600k | €800k | rose |
| Jonathan Bijimine Super League 1 · 2018 | 24 | €500k | €250k | fell |
| Jukka Raitala Eredivisie · 2013 | 25 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Alex Pinto Liga Portugal · 2021 | 23 | €650k | €600k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jul 2025 | Khimki | Pari NN | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 31 Jul 2024 | Independiente | Khimki | Free / loan | €800k |
| 30 Jun 2024 | CSD Municipal | Independiente | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Independiente | CSD Municipal | Free / loan | €175k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Universitario | Independiente | Free / loan | €175k |
| 11 Jul 2022 | Independiente | Universitario | Free / loan | €25k |
| 5 Aug 2021 | Atl. Nacional | Independiente | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Pl. Amador II | Atl. Nacional | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.