Maryan Faryna
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Maryan Faryna's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 1.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €277k vs market €350k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -8% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 4% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 817 (30% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.11
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 2 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1042
- Opponent strength
- 1156
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 4%
- Resale range (24m)
- €187k – €500k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -4% to +7%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 817 league minutes last season.
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 11 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 108%–176%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 82%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Kudrivka | Premier Liga | LB | 11 | 817 | 30% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1156 | 1042 | 0.25 |
| 2024/25 | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier Liga | CB | 4 | 203 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1152 | 1414 | 0.28 |
| 2023/24 | TOV FK Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | Premier Liga | CB | 22 | 1735 | 64% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 1251 | 1061 | 0.34 |
| 2023/24 | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier Liga | CB | 1 | 45 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1211 | 1497 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier Liga | CB | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1309 | 1546 | 0.38 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Ukrainian Cup | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Ukrainian Cup | TOV FK Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhammet Özkal Super Lig · 2021 | 22 | €300k | €150k | fell |
| Maksym Smiyan Premier Liga · 2024 | 22 | €250k | €600k | rose |
| Yaroslav Kysil Premier Liga · 2024 | 21 | €150k | €200k | rose |
| Loick Ayina Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 21 | €150k | €150k | flat |
| Sam McClelland Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 22 | €175k | €150k | flat |
| Owen Dodgson Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 21 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Maksym Sasovskyi Premier Liga · 2023 | 22 | €150k | €150k | flat |
| Oludare Olufunwa Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 23 | €100k | €100k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | FC Kudrivka | Shakhtar D. | Free / loan | €350k |
| 19 Feb 2026 | Shakhtar D. | FC Kudrivka | Free / loan | €400k |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Metalist 1925 | Shakhtar D. | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Sept 2023 | Shakhtar D. | Metalist 1925 | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Shakhtar U19 | Shakhtar D. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2020 | BRW-VIK | Shakhtar U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.