Maksym Smiyan
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Maksym Smiyan's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract ends within 6 months: can sign a pre-contract; small or no fee.
Bargain Index: 96
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 4.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €43k vs market €600k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -7% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2076 (77% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.17
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.20
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 4 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1087
- Opponent strength
- 1170
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €339k – €857k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 58 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -10% (IQR -25% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 6 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 11 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 108%–176%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 82%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | NK Veres Rivne | Premier Liga | LB | 26 | 2076 | 77% | 1 | 3 | 0.17 | 0.20 | 1170 | 1087 | 0.25 |
| 2024/25 | NK Veres Rivne | Premier Liga | LB | 16 | 505 | 19% | 1 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.21 | 1215 | 1133 | 0.28 |
| 2023/24 | NK Veres Rivne | Premier Liga | LB | 7 | 551 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1274 | 1152 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | Zorya Lugansk | Premier Liga | LB | 8 | 376 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1259 | 1406 | 0.38 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Ukrainian Cup | NK Veres Rivne | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Ukrainian Cup | NK Veres Rivne | 2 | 110 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Zorya Lugansk | 1 | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1360 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bogdan Chuev Premier Liga · 2024 | 24 | €350k | €350k | flat |
| Apostolos Diamantis Super League 1 · 2023 | 23 | €700k | €350k | fell |
| Arda Kızıldağ Super Lig · 2021 | 23 | €1.3M | €700k | fell |
| Marios Tsaousis Super League 1 · 2024 | 24 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Alexandros Malis Super League 1 · 2022 | 25 | €300k | €250k | flat |
| Sergiy Chobotenko Premier Liga · 2023 | 26 | €600k | €1.0M | rose |
| Richard Taylor Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 24 | €400k | €375k | flat |
| Mathias Haarup Superliga · 2019 | 23 | €350k | €300k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Jan 2024 | Zorya Lugansk | Veres Rivne | €50k | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Zorya U19 | Zorya Lugansk | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Aug 2019 | DYuSSh-15 Kyiv | Zorya U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.