Ethan Williams
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ethan Williams's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-1.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.18x the positional average in the league (1071 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 39
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 4.5th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 20.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €624k vs market €500k |
| Expected appreciation | High | +14% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 12% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1071 (36% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.34
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.48
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 5 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1181
- Opponent strength
- 1225
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 12%
- Resale range (24m)
- €323k – €1.4M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -14% (IQR -29% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1071 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 12 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 75%–114%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 67%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Falkirk FC | Scottish Premiership | LW | 23 | 1071 | 36% | 1 | 3 | 0.34 | 0.48 | 1225 | 1181 | 0.31 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Falkirk FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Robinson Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 22 | €350k | €250k | fell |
| Yegor Gunichev Premier Liga · 2024 | 21 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Gustav Marcussen Superliga · 2020 | 22 | €400k | €250k | fell |
| Stuart McKinstry Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 21 | €325k | €325k | flat |
| Mayron George Super League 1 · 2015 | 22 | €450k | €400k | flat |
| Felipe Souza Ferreyra Super League 1 · 2019 | 21 | €200k | €350k | rose |
| Vicente Besuijen Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 22 | €600k | €500k | flat |
| Fabricio Brener Super League 1 · 2021 | 23 | €250k | €175k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 May 2026 | Falkirk | Man Utd U21 | Free / loan | €500k |
| 31 Aug 2025 | Man Utd U21 | Falkirk | Free / loan | €75k |
| 31 May 2025 | Cheltenham | Man Utd U21 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 17 Jan 2025 | Man Utd U21 | Cheltenham | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Man Utd U18 | Man Utd U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Man Utd Youth | Man Utd U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 14 Nov 2019 | Rochdale Youth | Man Utd Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.