Andrey Ivlev
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Andrey Ivlev's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.8M-2.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-4.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.87x the positional average in the league (1400 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 71
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 8.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 19.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €1.4M vs market €1.2M |
| Expected appreciation | Very high | +41% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 23% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1400 (52% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.06
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.19
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 8 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1176
- Opponent strength
- 1347
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 23%
- Resale range (24m)
- €713k – €4.3M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 17 pts; changed club; role change AM -> CM.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -51% (IQR -56% to -13%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1400 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 54%–153%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 56%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Nizhny Novgorod | Premier Liga | CM | 25 | 1400 | 52% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.19 | 1347 | 1176 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | Fakel Voronezh | Premier Liga | AM | 21 | 930 | 34% | 0 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.37 | 1308 | 1194 | 0.55 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Nizhny Novgorod | 5 | 402 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | Fakel Voronezh | 6 | 384 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | Fakel Voronezh | 5 | 332 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Carvalho Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 21 | €800k | €26.0M | rose |
| Georgiy Zhukov Eredivisie · 2016 | 22 | €1.0M | €600k | fell |
| Pedro Pelágio Liga Portugal · 2021 | 21 | €1.0M | €450k | fell |
| Georgios Katidis Super League 1 · 2013 | 20 | €1.0M | €450k | fell |
| Matchoi Djaló Liga Portugal · 2023 | 20 | €1.5M | €800k | fell |
| Luka Ilic Eredivisie · 2021 | 22 | €950k | €2.5M | rose |
| Mykola Musolitin Premier Liga · 2019 | 20 | €600k | €250k | fell |
| Kamil Zakirov Premier Liga · 2019 | 21 | €700k | €300k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Fakel Voronezh | Pari NN | €200k | €400k |
| 1 Jan 2024 | Fakel II | Fakel Voronezh | Unknown | €75k |
| 20 Feb 2023 | Akademia FCSM | Fakel II | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Ak.Spartak U16 | Akademia FCSM | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Dinamo M. Youth | Ak.Spartak U16 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.