Jahmai Simpson-Pusey
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jahmai Simpson-Pusey's performance-implied value at EUR 1.7M-16.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 7.3M-14.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.0M-21.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 63
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 62.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 20.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €10.3M vs market €9.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +29% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 29% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 928 (30% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 62 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1351
- Opponent strength
- 1531
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 29%
- Resale range (24m)
- €6.0M – €21.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +2% (IQR -21% to +36%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 928 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | 1.FC Köln | Bundesliga | CB | 11 | 864 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1531 | 1347 | 0.94 |
| 2025/26 | Celtic FC | Scottish Premiership | RB | 1 | 64 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1149 | 1406 | 0.31 |
| 2024/25 | Manchester City | Premier League | CB | 2 | 95 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1556 | 1749 | 1.23 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 2 | 112 | 0 | 0 | 1688 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matteo Lovato Serie A · 2021 | 21 | €7.0M | €6.0M | flat |
| Nathan Zézé Ligue 1 · 2024 | 19 | €5.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Diego Coppola Serie A · 2023 | 20 | €4.0M | €10.0M | rose |
| Tim Oermann Bundesliga · 2024 | 21 | €4.0M | €4.0M | flat |
| Ibrahima Mbaye Serie A · 2016 | 22 | €3.2M | €3.3M | flat |
| Zinho Vanheusden Serie A · 2022 | 23 | €8.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Andy Pelmard Ligue 1 · 2020 | 20 | €3.6M | €4.0M | flat |
| Brandon Soppy Serie A · 2022 | 20 | €5.0M | €2.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | 1.FC Köln | Man City U21 | Free / loan | €9.0M |
| 6 Jan 2026 | Man City U21 | 1.FC Köln | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 5 Jan 2026 | Celtic | Man City U21 | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 5 Aug 2025 | Man City U21 | Celtic | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Man City U18 | Man City U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Man City Youth | Man City U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Huddersf. Yth. | Man City Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.