Diego Coppola
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Diego Coppola's performance-implied value at EUR 5.0M-15.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 13.6M-25.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 9.5M-30.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 42
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 69.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €19.9M vs market €18.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +3% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 18% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1364 (40% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.13
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.15
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 70 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1476
- Opponent strength
- 1510
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 18%
- Resale range (24m)
- €9.5M – €30.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 46 pts; changed club; team strength up (+110 Elo); relative output up 51% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -12% (IQR -36% to +16%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1364 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Paris FC | Ligue 1 | CB | 13 | 1170 | 38% | 0 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 1510 | 1454 | 0.88 |
| 2025/26 | Brighton & Hove Albion | Premier League | CB | 5 | 194 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1655 | 1611 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Hellas Verona | Serie A | CB | 34 | 2926 | 86% | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 1501 | 1366 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Hellas Verona | Serie A | CB | 24 | 1636 | 48% | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.13 | 1487 | 1381 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Hellas Verona | Serie A | CB | 19 | 1172 | 34% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1439 | 1357 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | Hellas Verona | Serie A | CB | 4 | 249 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1414 | 1441 | 0.89 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Brighton & Hove Albion | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Hellas Verona | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Hellas Verona | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | Hellas Verona | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Matip Bundesliga · 2015 | 24 | €14.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Ozan Kabak Bundesliga · 2020 | 20 | €29.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Carl Jenkinson Premier League · 2016 | 24 | €9.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Kristoffer Ajer Premier League · 2022 | 24 | €18.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Nathaniel Clyne Premier League · 2014 | 23 | €7.0M | €21.0M | rose |
| Valentin Rosier Ligue 1 · 2019 | 23 | €8.0M | €7.5M | flat |
| Manu Sánchez Laliga · 2024 | 24 | €8.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Perr Schuurs Serie A · 2024 | 25 | €25.0M | €25.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Paris FC | Brighton | Free / loan | €18.0M |
| 29 Jan 2026 | Brighton | Paris FC | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 1 Jul 2025 | Hellas Verona | Brighton | €11.0M | €10.0M |
| 1 Jan 2022 | Verona U19 | Hellas Verona | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Sept 2020 | Hellas U17 | Verona U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.