Ruslan Babenko

34 yrs · Central midfielder (also DM) · Ukraine
FK Polissya Zhytomyr · Premier Liga · Foot: left · Height: 172 cm
Risk: Very HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€250k
Updated today
Estimated acquisition
€58k – €218k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€250k – €562k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€61k – €239k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
€32k – €503k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€58k – €218k
Model value (performance-implied)€250k – €562k
Projected value (24 months)€61k – €239k
Dashed line: current market value (€250k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Ruslan Babenko's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.26x the positional average in the league (2175 minutes, league coefficient 0.25). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

PerformanceAverage46.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable34 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €78k vs market €250k
Expected appreciationVery low-40% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.25
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskVery High
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €800k

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2175 (81% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.03
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
46 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.25 (rank 30)
Team strength (Elo)
1290
Opponent strength
1182
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€61k – €239k

Trajectory drivers: role change CM -> DM; relative output down 58% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -40% (IQR -47% to -38%).

Risk profile

Overall: Very High

  • ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
  • ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
37 (all positions)
Relative output kept
87%–128%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
86%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26FK Polissya ZhytomyrPremier LigaDM27217581%000.000.03118212900.25
2024/25FK Polissya ZhytomyrPremier LigaCM23206076%020.090.13122412360.28
2023/24SC Dnipro-1Premier LigaCM25221482%100.040.08127813350.34
2020/21Olimpik DonetskPremier LigaDM22196784%100.050.10130911570.49
2018/19Chornomorets OdesaPremier LigaCM19166584%110.110.22134411950.57
2017/18Zorya LuganskPremier LigaCM1376439%000.000.13132314230.62
2016/17Zorya LuganskPremier LigaCM41204%000.000.21132714140.56
2015/16PFK Stal Kamyanske (-2018)Premier LigaCM942518%100.210.30136512880.54
2014/15Volyn LutskPremier LigaCM18142561%110.130.23136712600.54
2012/13Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk (-2020)Premier LigaCM2331%000.000.20138815140.70

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Conference League QualifyingFK Polissya Zhytomyr6526001398
2025/26Ukrainian CupFK Polissya Zhytomyr12000—
2024/25Ukrainian CupFK Polissya Zhytomyr326400—
2023/24Uefa Conference League QualifyingSC Dnipro-12189001463
2023/24Uefa Champions League QualifyingSC Dnipro-12173001424
2023/24Uefa Europa League QualifyingSC Dnipro-12151001536
2023/24Ukrainian CupSC Dnipro-1112000—
2020/21Ukrainian CupOlimpik Donetsk19000—
2018/19Ukrainian CupChornomorets Odesa12200—
2017/18Uefa Europa LeagueZorya Lugansk2104001542
2017/18Ukrainian CupZorya Lugansk18500—
2015/16Ukrainian CupPFK Stal Kamyanske (-2018)211601—
2014/15Ukrainian CupVolyn Lutsk213500—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Jim Goodwin
Scottish Premiership · 2014
33€450k€300kfell
Hakan Arslan
Super Lig · 2022
34€850k€100kfell
Alan Power
Scottish Premiership · 2022
34€350k€200kfell
Rubén Pérez
Super League 1 · 2022
33€1.0M€600kfell
Christian Keller
Superliga · 2015
35€300k€200kfell
Juan Munafo
Super League 1 · 2022
34€250k€150kfell
José Luis Valiente
Super League 1 · 2021
30€400k€175kfell
Gary Dicker
Scottish Premiership · 2019
33€500k€300kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2024SC Dnipro-1PolissyaFree / loan€500k
29 Jul 2022MetalistSC Dnipro-1Free / loan€350k
8 Jul 2022PolissyaMetalistFree / loan€350k
10 Sept 2021Without ClubPolissyaUnknown€400k
1 Jul 2021Olimpik DonetskWithout ClubUnknown€400k
2 Sept 2020RakówOlimpik DonetskFree / loan€400k
1 Jul 2019ChornomoretsRakówFree / loan€600k
25 Jul 2018Zorya LuganskChornomoretsFree / loan€400k
19 Jan 2017Bodø/GlimtZorya LuganskFree / loan€400k
8 Feb 2016Stal D.Bodø/GlimtFree / loan€700k
12 Aug 2015DniproStal D.Free / loan€700k
30 Jun 2015Volyn LutskDniproFree / loan€700k
24 Jul 2014DniproVolyn LutskFree / loan€400k
1 Jan 2011Dnipro IIDniproUnknown€25k
1 Jan 2009Dnipro U17Dnipro IIUnknown€50k

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.