
Kyle Walker
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Kyle Walker's performance-implied value at EUR 0.9M-1.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | High | 86th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 36.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €507k vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -35% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3097 (91% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.06
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.15
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 86 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1343
- Opponent strength
- 1611
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €511k – €1.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 43 pts; changed club; team strength down (-356 Elo); league level up (+59 Elo); relative output up 176% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -68% (IQR -82% to -50%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Age 36: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Burnley FC | Premier League | RB | 36 | 3097 | 91% | 0 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.15 | 1611 | 1343 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Manchester City | Premier League | RB | 15 | 967 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1602 | 1749 | 1.23 |
| 2024/25 | AC Milan | Serie A | RB | 11 | 658 | 19% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1530 | 1625 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Manchester City | Premier League | RB | 32 | 2768 | 81% | 0 | 4 | 0.13 | 0.07 | 1564 | 1893 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Manchester City | Premier League | RB | 27 | 1956 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1554 | 1915 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Manchester City | Premier League | RB | 20 | 1755 | 51% | 0 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.06 | 1584 | 1866 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Manchester City | Premier League | RB | 24 | 1946 | 57% | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 1565 | 1883 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | Manchester City | Premier League | RB | 29 | 2396 | 70% | 1 | 4 | 0.19 | 0.10 | 1580 | 1848 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | Manchester City | Premier League | RB | 33 | 2777 | 81% | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 1527 | 1924 | 1.22 |
| 2017/18 | Manchester City | Premier League | RB | 32 | 2787 | 81% | 0 | 6 | 0.19 | 0.13 | 1532 | 1831 | 1.15 |
| 2016/17 | Tottenham Hotspur | Premier League | RB | 33 | 2704 | 79% | 0 | 5 | 0.17 | 0.13 | 1528 | 1723 | 1.07 |
| 2015/16 | Tottenham Hotspur | Premier League | RB | 33 | 2943 | 86% | 1 | 3 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 1527 | 1635 | 1.08 |
| 2014/15 | Tottenham Hotspur | Premier League | RB | 15 | 1307 | 38% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1520 | 1576 | 1.06 |
| 2013/14 | Tottenham Hotspur | Premier League | RB | 26 | 2298 | 67% | 1 | 3 | 0.16 | 0.13 | 1558 | 1621 | 1.12 |
| 2012/13 | Tottenham Hotspur | Premier League | RB | 36 | 3160 | 92% | 0 | 5 | 0.14 | 0.11 | 1523 | 1616 | 1.07 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | AC Milan | 3 | 208 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | AC Milan | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1572 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 2 | 102 | 0 | 0 | 1632 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 6 | 505 | 0 | 0 | 1663 |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Community Shield | Manchester City | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1726 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Super Cup | Manchester City | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1568 |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 5 | 392 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 5 | 280 | 0 | 0 | 1758 |
| 2022/23 | Community Shield | Manchester City | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1881 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 7 | 578 | 1 | 0 | 1672 |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 11 | 982 | 0 | 0 | 1640 |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 3 | 270 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 6 | 443 | 0 | 0 | 1667 |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 2 | 161 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Community Shield | Manchester City | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1928 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 10 | 746 | 0 | 0 | 1622 |
| 2018/19 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 5 | 405 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Community Shield | Manchester City | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1667 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 7 | 630 | 0 | 1 | 1664 |
| 2017/18 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 3 | 153 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League | Tottenham Hotspur | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1584 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League | Tottenham Hotspur | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1447 |
| 2016/17 | Fa Cup | Tottenham Hotspur | 1 | 22 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Fa Cup | Tottenham Hotspur | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Europa League | Tottenham Hotspur | 3 | 181 | 0 | 0 | 1586 |
| 2013/14 | Uefa Europa League | Tottenham Hotspur | 3 | 256 | 0 | 1 | 1523 |
| 2013/14 | Fa Cup | Tottenham Hotspur | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2013/14 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Tottenham Hotspur | 1 | 57 | 0 | 0 | 1351 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luísinho Laliga · 2018 | 33 | €1.2M | €300k | fell |
| Fernando Navarro Laliga · 2016 | 34 | €1.0M | €100k | fell |
| Anaitz Arbilla Laliga · 2021 | 34 | €1.0M | €400k | fell |
| Dimitrios Siovas Laliga · 2021 | 33 | €2.5M | €450k | fell |
| Séamus Coleman Premier League · 2022 | 34 | €3.0M | €500k | fell |
| Weligton Laliga · 2015 | 36 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Gareth McAuley Premier League · 2016 | 37 | €1.0M | €1.0M | flat |
| Craig Cathcart Premier League · 2022 | 33 | €1.2M | €600k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Jul 2025 | Man City | Burnley | €5.0M | €4.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | AC Milan | Man City | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 24 Jan 2025 | Man City | AC Milan | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 14 Jul 2017 | Tottenham | Man City | €52.7M | €30.0M |
| 31 May 2011 | Aston Villa | Tottenham | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 5 Jan 2011 | Tottenham | Aston Villa | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 31 Dec 2010 | QPR | Tottenham | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 13 Sept 2010 | Tottenham | QPR | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 1 Feb 2010 | Sheff Utd | Tottenham | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 4 Aug 2009 | Tottenham | Sheff Utd | Free / loan | €50k |
| 22 Jul 2009 | Sheff Utd | Tottenham | €5.9M | €50k |
| 1 Jan 2009 | Northampton | Sheff Utd | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Nov 2008 | Sheff Utd | Northampton | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Sheff Utd U18 | Sheff Utd | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.