Graeme Shinnie
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Graeme Shinnie's performance-implied value at EUR 0.1M-0.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-0.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.0M-0.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.94x the positional average in the league (1704 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Market value below EUR 250k (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Below average | 15.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 34.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €85k vs market €100k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -11% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1704 (57% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.11
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.12
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 16 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1119
- Opponent strength
- 1194
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €50k – €102k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 25 pts; team strength down (-67 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -23% (IQR -47% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ▲Age 35: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1704 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 10 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–107%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 80%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Aberdeen FC | Scottish Premiership | DM | 28 | 1704 | 57% | 0 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 1194 | 1119 | 0.31 |
| 2024/25 | Aberdeen FC | Scottish Premiership | DM | 31 | 2432 | 82% | 1 | 3 | 0.15 | 0.14 | 1248 | 1186 | 0.34 |
| 2023/24 | Aberdeen FC | Scottish Premiership | DM | 33 | 2820 | 95% | 0 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.10 | 1251 | 1186 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | Aberdeen FC | Scottish Premiership | DM | 11 | 983 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1288 | 1284 | 0.40 |
| 2018/19 | Aberdeen FC | Scottish Premiership | DM | 33 | 2970 | 100% | 3 | 3 | 0.18 | 0.12 | 1297 | 1359 | 0.44 |
| 2017/18 | Aberdeen FC | Scottish Premiership | DM | 30 | 2696 | 91% | 2 | 7 | 0.30 | 0.16 | 1265 | 1400 | 0.47 |
| 2016/17 | Aberdeen FC | Scottish Premiership | DM | 36 | 3122 | 91% | 2 | 7 | 0.26 | 0.12 | 1303 | 1437 | 0.48 |
| 2015/16 | Aberdeen FC | Scottish Premiership | LB | 37 | 3330 | 97% | 1 | 5 | 0.16 | 0.12 | 1263 | 1362 | 0.44 |
| 2014/15 | Inverness Caledonian Thistle FC | Scottish Premiership | LB | 37 | 3330 | 97% | 2 | 9 | 0.30 | 0.21 | 1288 | 1322 | 0.41 |
| 2013/14 | Inverness Caledonian Thistle FC | Scottish Premiership | LB | 36 | 3240 | 95% | 3 | 6 | 0.25 | 0.16 | 1333 | 1305 | 0.44 |
| 2012/13 | Inverness Caledonian Thistle FC | Scottish Premiership | DM | 37 | 3310 | 97% | 1 | 6 | 0.19 | 0.16 | 1332 | 1326 | 0.52 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Aberdeen FC | 3 | 213 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Aberdeen FC | 2 | 121 | 0 | 0 | 1372 |
| 2024/25 | Scottish Fa Cup | Aberdeen FC | 5 | 380 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Scottish Fa Cup | Aberdeen FC | 3 | 225 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Aberdeen FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1377 |
| 2018/19 | Scottish Fa Cup | Aberdeen FC | 5 | 450 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Aberdeen FC | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | 1501 |
| 2017/18 | Scottish Fa Cup | Aberdeen FC | 4 | 390 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Aberdeen FC | 4 | 360 | 1 | 0 | 1319 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Aberdeen FC | 6 | 522 | 0 | 0 | 1324 |
| 2016/17 | Scottish Fa Cup | Aberdeen FC | 5 | 450 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Aberdeen FC | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1400 |
| 2015/16 | Scottish Fa Cup | Aberdeen FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Scottish Fa Cup | Inverness Caledonian Thistle FC | 6 | 570 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2013/14 | Scottish Fa Cup | Inverness Caledonian Thistle FC | 4 | 360 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2012/13 | Scottish Fa Cup | Inverness Caledonian Thistle FC | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergiy Politylo Premier Liga · 2023 | 34 | €250k | €250k | flat |
| Yaroslav Martynyuk Premier Liga · 2023 | 34 | €200k | €75k | fell |
| Marko Blazic Super League 1 · 2019 | 34 | €200k | €50k | fell |
| Darian Mackinnon Scottish Premiership · 2019 | 34 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Sergiy Rybalka Premier Liga · 2024 | 34 | €150k | €150k | flat |
| Emmanuel Koné Super League 1 · 2019 | 32 | €250k | €150k | fell |
| José Alberto Cañas Super League 1 · 2022 | 35 | €100k | €100k | flat |
| Juan Munafo Super League 1 · 2023 | 35 | €250k | €150k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Aberdeen FC | Inverness CT | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Wigan | Aberdeen FC | Unknown | €400k |
| 31 May 2023 | Aberdeen FC | Wigan | Free / loan | €700k |
| 5 Jan 2023 | Wigan | Aberdeen FC | Free / loan | €700k |
| 16 Jan 2022 | Derby | Wigan | €35k | €1.8M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Aberdeen FC | Derby | Free / loan | €850k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Inverness CT | Aberdeen FC | Free / loan | €550k |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Inverness U20 | Inverness CT | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 May 2010 | Forres | Inverness U20 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2010 | Inverness U20 | Forres | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Dyce BC | Inverness U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.