
Dante Polvara
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Dante Polvara's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.87x the positional average in the league (1047 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 87
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 4.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €478k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -9% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1047 (35% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.09
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.11
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 4 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1119
- Opponent strength
- 1207
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €384k – €1.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -5% to +3%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1047 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 10 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–107%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 80%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Aberdeen FC | Scottish Premiership | DM | 18 | 1047 | 35% | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 1207 | 1119 | 0.31 |
| 2024/25 | Aberdeen FC | Scottish Premiership | DM | 7 | 137 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1244 | 1186 | 0.34 |
| 2023/24 | Aberdeen FC | Scottish Premiership | DM | 24 | 1168 | 39% | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.13 | 1298 | 1186 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | Aberdeen FC | Scottish Premiership | DM | 3 | 138 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 1474 | 1284 | 0.40 |
| 2021/22 | Aberdeen FC | Scottish Premiership | DM | 2 | 11 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 1598 | 1265 | 0.50 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Aberdeen FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Aberdeen FC | 2 | 76 | 1 | 0 | 1373 |
| 2024/25 | Scottish Fa Cup | Aberdeen FC | 4 | 137 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Scottish Fa Cup | Aberdeen FC | 3 | 259 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Aberdeen FC | 1 | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1378 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Gallacher Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 25 | €350k | €350k | flat |
| Bryan Rabello Super League 1 · 2021 | 27 | €450k | €450k | flat |
| Giannis Bouzoukis Super League 1 · 2023 | 25 | €450k | €450k | flat |
| Okechukwu Azubuike Super Lig · 2022 | 25 | €1.0M | €150k | fell |
| Jonas Gemmer Superliga · 2021 | 25 | €300k | €400k | rose |
| August Erlingmark Super League 1 · 2023 | 25 | €700k | €800k | flat |
| Assane Dioussé Super Lig · 2021 | 24 | €1.1M | €900k | flat |
| Alexis Trouillet Super League 1 · 2024 | 24 | €900k | €900k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jan 2026 | Aberdeen FC | St. Louis CITY | €200k | €400k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Charleston | Aberdeen FC | Free / loan | €150k |
| 8 Mar 2023 | Aberdeen FC | Charleston | Free / loan | €100k |
| 8 Jan 2022 | Georgetown | Aberdeen FC | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2021 | Manhattan | Georgetown | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 May 2021 | Georgetown | Manhattan | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2019 | NYCFC Academy | Georgetown | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.