Dante Polvara

26 yrs · Defensive midfielder · United States
Aberdeen FC · Scottish Premiership · Foot: right · Height: 193 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€800k
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€297k – €854k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€258k – €547k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€384k – €1.3M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€596k – €250k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€297k – €854k
Model value (performance-implied)€258k – €547k
Projected value (24 months)€384k – €1.3M
Dashed line: current market value (€800k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Dante Polvara's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.87x the positional average in the league (1047 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 87

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average4.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral26 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €478k vs market €800k
Expected appreciationNeutral-9% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapNegativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.31
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €800k

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1047 (35% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.09
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.11
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
4 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.31 (rank 26)
Team strength (Elo)
1119
Opponent strength
1207
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€384k – €1.3M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -5% to +3%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠Limited sample: 1047 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
10 (MID)
Relative output kept
77%–107%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
80%
Confidence
Low

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Aberdeen FCScottish PremiershipDM18104735%100.090.11120711190.31
2024/25Aberdeen FCScottish PremiershipDM71375%000.000.11124411860.34
2023/24Aberdeen FCScottish PremiershipDM24116839%010.080.13129811860.34
2022/23Aberdeen FCScottish PremiershipDM31385%000.000.13147412840.40
2021/22Aberdeen FCScottish PremiershipDM2110%000.000.33159812650.50

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Scottish Fa CupAberdeen FC19001—
2025/26Uefa Europa League QualifyingAberdeen FC276101373
2024/25Scottish Fa CupAberdeen FC413701—
2023/24Scottish Fa CupAberdeen FC325902—
2023/24Uefa Europa League QualifyingAberdeen FC170001378

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Tony Gallacher
Scottish Premiership · 2024
25€350k€350kflat
Bryan Rabello
Super League 1 · 2021
27€450k€450kflat
Giannis Bouzoukis
Super League 1 · 2023
25€450k€450kflat
Okechukwu Azubuike
Super Lig · 2022
25€1.0M€150kfell
Jonas Gemmer
Superliga · 2021
25€300k€400krose
August Erlingmark
Super League 1 · 2023
25€700k€800kflat
Assane Dioussé
Super Lig · 2021
24€1.1M€900kflat
Alexis Trouillet
Super League 1 · 2024
24€900k€900kflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
30 Jan 2026Aberdeen FCSt. Louis CITY€200k€400k
30 Jun 2023CharlestonAberdeen FCFree / loan€150k
8 Mar 2023Aberdeen FCCharlestonFree / loan€100k
8 Jan 2022GeorgetownAberdeen FCFree / loanData unavailable
1 Aug 2021ManhattanGeorgetownFree / loanData unavailable
1 May 2021GeorgetownManhattanFree / loanData unavailable
1 Aug 2019NYCFC AcademyGeorgetownFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.