Arthur
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Arthur's performance-implied value at EUR 6.9M-15.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.9M-12.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.0M-15.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.85x the positional average in the league (1132 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 60
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 73.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €7.7M vs market €8.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +5% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1132 (37% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.32
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.19
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 74 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1626
- Opponent strength
- 1490
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €5.0M – €15.3M
Trajectory drivers: role change RB -> RM; relative output up 45% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -6% (IQR -37% to +60%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1132 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | RM | 20 | 1132 | 37% | 1 | 3 | 0.32 | 0.19 | 1490 | 1626 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | RB | 20 | 744 | 24% | 0 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.08 | 1468 | 1681 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | RM | 4 | 183 | 6% | 0 | 2 | 0.98 | 0.14 | 1472 | 1787 | 1.01 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 8 | 393 | 0 | 0 | 1665 |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 3 | 188 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 3 | 161 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 5 | 107 | 0 | 0 | 1721 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 1 | 21 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xherdan Shaqiri Serie A · 2015 | 24 | €17.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Jens Petter Hauge Bundesliga · 2022 | 23 | €8.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Ogenyi Onazi Serie A · 2016 | 24 | €4.5M | €3.5M | fell |
| Gylfi Sigurdsson Premier League · 2013 | 24 | €8.0M | €11.0M | rose |
| Marcelo Brozović Serie A · 2015 | 23 | €8.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Rodri Sánchez Laliga · 2023 | 23 | €8.0M | €2.7M | fell |
| Ramón Terrats Laliga · 2023 | 23 | €4.0M | €4.0M | flat |
| Exequiel Palacios Bundesliga · 2022 | 24 | €15.0M | €45.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | América-MG | Leverkusen | €7.0M | €5.0M |
| 1 Feb 2023 | América-MG U20 | América-MG | Unknown | €200k |
| 31 Jan 2021 | Flamengo U20 | América-MG U20 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Feb 2020 | América-MG U20 | Flamengo U20 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.