Pathé Mboup
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Pathé Mboup's performance-implied value at EUR 1.4M-4.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.1M-3.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.2M-4.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.59x the positional average in the league (1048 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 60
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 39.3th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €2.2M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -1% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 20% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1048 (34% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.09
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.24
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 39 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1407
- Opponent strength
- 1464
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 20%
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.2M – €4.9M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -14% (IQR -53% to +6%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1048 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 | LW | 28 | 1048 | 34% | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.24 | 1464 | 1407 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | RWD Molenbeek | Jupiler Pro League | LW | 19 | 752 | 28% | 2 | 2 | 0.48 | 0.46 | 1376 | 1214 | 0.63 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federico Ricci Serie A · 2017 | 23 | €3.5M | €1.7M | fell |
| Adrien Hunou Ligue 1 · 2017 | 23 | €2.0M | €6.0M | rose |
| Marco D'Alessandro Serie A · 2015 | 24 | €1.8M | €1.5M | flat |
| Arnaud Nordin Ligue 1 · 2020 | 22 | €4.5M | €4.0M | flat |
| Bassem Srarfi Ligue 1 · 2019 | 22 | €3.0M | €600k | fell |
| Romain Del Castillo Ligue 1 · 2019 | 23 | €3.5M | €4.5M | rose |
| Adrien Regattin Ligue 1 · 2013 | 22 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
| Oussama Tannane Ligue 1 · 2017 | 23 | €3.0M | €1.3M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Aug 2025 | Pau FC | Stade Brestois | €1.7M | €2.5M |
| 17 Jul 2024 | RWDM | Pau FC | Free / loan | €400k |
| 6 Sept 2023 | Olymp. Lyon B | RWDM | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Sept 2022 | SL16 FC | Olymp. Lyon B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 31 Jan 2022 | Sacré Cœur | Standard U21 | €300k | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.