Paulo Vitor
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Paulo Vitor's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 85
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 9.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €367k vs market €500k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +8% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1425 (47% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.05
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 9 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1183
- Opponent strength
- 1348
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €329k – €857k
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-78 Elo); relative output up 45% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -29% (IQR -41% to -13%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1425 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Avs Futebol | Liga Portugal | CB | 17 | 1421 | 46% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1348 | 1182 | 0.58 |
| 2025/26 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | CB | 1 | 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1296 | 1361 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Akron Togliatti | Premier Liga | CB | 16 | 1297 | 48% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1295 | 1260 | 0.55 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | Akron Togliatti | 3 | 225 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danila Sagutkin Premier Liga · 2019 | 23 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Ibrahim Ayew Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 25 | €500k | €250k | fell |
| Wessel Dammers Eredivisie · 2019 | 24 | €500k | €700k | rose |
| Jota Gonçalves Liga Portugal · 2024 | 24 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Manassé Enza-Yamissi Liga Portugal · 2015 | 26 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Leon Guwara Eredivisie · 2021 | 25 | €600k | €500k | flat |
| Yevgen Martynenko Premier Liga · 2018 | 25 | €600k | €400k | fell |
| Brandon Haunstrup Scottish Premiership · 2021 | 25 | €350k | €200k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Avs FS | Akron Tolyatti | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Sept 2025 | Akron Tolyatti | Avs FS | Free / loan | €800k |
| 31 Aug 2025 | Vit. Guimarães | Akron Tolyatti | Free / loan | €800k |
| 3 Jul 2025 | Akron Tolyatti | Vit. Guimarães | Free / loan | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Maguary | Akron Tolyatti | €450k | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Nacional | Maguary | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 7 Jul 2023 | Maguary | Nacional | Free / loan | €225k |
| 6 Jul 2023 | Botafogo-PB | Maguary | Free / loan | €225k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Nacional | Botafogo-PB | Free / loan | €225k |
| 4 Aug 2022 | Botafogo-PB | Nacional | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2022 | Imperatriz | Botafogo-PB | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2021 | Timon U20 | Imperatriz | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2020 | Marília-MA | Timon U20 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.