Marc Bartra

35 yrs · Centre-back · Spain
Real Betis Balompié · Laliga · Foot: right · Height: 184 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€900k
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€304k – €890k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€1.1M – €2.5M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€340k – €905k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
€203k – €2.2M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€304k – €890k
Model value (performance-implied)€1.1M – €2.5M
Projected value (24 months)€340k – €905k
Dashed line: current market value (€900k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Marc Bartra's performance-implied value at EUR 1.1M-2.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

PerformanceHigh87.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable35.5 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €406k vs market €900k
Expected appreciationLow-15% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.95
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €22.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1978 (58% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.05
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.05
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
88 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.95 (rank 2)
Team strength (Elo)
1549
Opponent strength
1474
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€340k – €905k

Trajectory drivers: relative output down 53% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -63% (IQR -69% to -53%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Age 35: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Real Betis BalompiéLaligaCB25197858%100.050.05147415490.95
2024/25Real Betis BalompiéLaligaCB25210161%210.130.11153515550.95
2023/24Real Betis BalompiéLaligaCB32257%000.000.07154515201.00
2022/23TrabzonsporSuper LigCB29227170%410.200.14128413770.50
2021/22Real Betis BalompiéLaligaCB23199458%100.050.05154115881.05
2020/21Real Betis BalompiéLaligaCB19169550%010.050.07157715571.10
2019/20Real Betis BalompiéLaligaCB30252674%310.140.15155614811.16
2018/19Real Betis BalompiéLaligaCB33293086%100.030.04154915101.14
2017/18Real Betis BalompiéLaligaCB16142142%100.060.07153815221.11
2017/18Borussia DortmundBundesligaCB1280626%210.330.12149915921.04
2016/17Borussia DortmundBundesligaCB19156051%040.230.11154717051.06
2015/16FC BarcelonaLaligaCB1349815%210.540.13148918791.17
2014/15FC BarcelonaLaligaCB14103530%130.350.11147119151.18
2013/14FC BarcelonaLaligaCB20158746%110.110.05149318091.19
2012/13FC BarcelonaLaligaCB839412%000.000.03142217701.06

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Europa LeagueReal Betis Balompié5361001500
2025/26Copa Del ReyReal Betis Balompié415700—
2024/25Copa Del ReyReal Betis Balompié213510—
2023/24Uefa Europa LeagueReal Betis Balompié190001510
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueTrabzonspor6540001526
2022/23Uefa Champions League QualifyingTrabzonspor2122001482
2021/22Copa Del ReyReal Betis Balompié544310—
2021/22Uefa Europa LeagueReal Betis Balompié4390001520
2019/20Copa Del ReyReal Betis Balompié325500—
2018/19Copa Del ReyReal Betis Balompié758000—
2018/19Uefa Europa LeagueReal Betis Balompié6450001486
2017/18Uefa Champions LeagueBorussia Dortmund4350001632
2017/18Dfb PokalBorussia Dortmund321520—
2017/18Franz Beckenbauer SupercupBorussia Dortmund190001855
2016/17Uefa Champions LeagueBorussia Dortmund7580101637
2016/17Dfb PokalBorussia Dortmund437600—
2016/17Franz Beckenbauer SupercupBorussia Dortmund190001853
2015/16Copa Del ReyFC Barcelona533100—
2015/16Uefa Champions LeagueFC Barcelona4236001515
2015/16SupercopaFC Barcelona190001616
2015/16Uefa Super CupFC Barcelona142001771
2014/15Uefa Champions LeagueFC Barcelona6451011519
2014/15Copa Del ReyFC Barcelona536200—
2013/14Copa Del ReyFC Barcelona644710—
2013/14Uefa Champions LeagueFC Barcelona4268001689
2012/13Uefa Champions LeagueFC Barcelona6372001660
2012/13Copa Del ReyFC Barcelona213500—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Nemanja Vidic‎
Serie A · 2015
34€1.0M€500kfell
Joel Ward
Premier League · 2024
35€1.0M€300kfell
Rod Fanni
Ligue 1 · 2017
36€500k€175kfell
Phil Bardsley
Premier League · 2020
35€800k€250kfell
Oscar Wendt
Bundesliga · 2021
36€600k€400kfell
Raúl Albiol
Laliga · 2024
39€1.5M€700kfell
Filip Daems
Bundesliga · 2013
35€1.0M€250kfell
Martin Jiranek
Premier Liga · 2013
34€500k€200kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
24 Jul 2023TrabzonsporReal BetisFree / loan€3.7M
15 Aug 2022Real BetisTrabzonspor€1.3M€6.0M
30 Jan 2018DortmundReal Betis€10.5M€15.0M
1 Jul 2016BarcelonaDortmund€8.0M€8.0M
1 Jul 2012Barcelona BBarcelonaUnknown€2.5M
1 Jul 2009Barça U19Barça AtlèticUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2008Barça U18Barça U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2007Barça U16Barça U18UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2006Barça YouthBarça U16UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2002Espanyol YouthBarça YouthFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.