
Marc Bartra
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Marc Bartra's performance-implied value at EUR 1.1M-2.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | High | 87.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 35.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €406k vs market €900k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -15% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1978 (58% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.05
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.05
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 88 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1549
- Opponent strength
- 1474
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €340k – €905k
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 53% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -63% (IQR -69% to -53%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 35: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | CB | 25 | 1978 | 58% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 1474 | 1549 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | CB | 25 | 2101 | 61% | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 1535 | 1555 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | CB | 3 | 225 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1545 | 1520 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Trabzonspor | Super Lig | CB | 29 | 2271 | 70% | 4 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 1284 | 1377 | 0.50 |
| 2021/22 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | CB | 23 | 1994 | 58% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 1541 | 1588 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | CB | 19 | 1695 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 1577 | 1557 | 1.10 |
| 2019/20 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | CB | 30 | 2526 | 74% | 3 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.15 | 1556 | 1481 | 1.16 |
| 2018/19 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | CB | 33 | 2930 | 86% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 1549 | 1510 | 1.14 |
| 2017/18 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | CB | 16 | 1421 | 42% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 1538 | 1522 | 1.11 |
| 2017/18 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | CB | 12 | 806 | 26% | 2 | 1 | 0.33 | 0.12 | 1499 | 1592 | 1.04 |
| 2016/17 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | CB | 19 | 1560 | 51% | 0 | 4 | 0.23 | 0.11 | 1547 | 1705 | 1.06 |
| 2015/16 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | CB | 13 | 498 | 15% | 2 | 1 | 0.54 | 0.13 | 1489 | 1879 | 1.17 |
| 2014/15 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | CB | 14 | 1035 | 30% | 1 | 3 | 0.35 | 0.11 | 1471 | 1915 | 1.18 |
| 2013/14 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | CB | 20 | 1587 | 46% | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 1493 | 1809 | 1.19 |
| 2012/13 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | CB | 8 | 394 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1422 | 1770 | 1.06 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Real Betis Balompié | 5 | 361 | 0 | 0 | 1500 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 4 | 157 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 2 | 135 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Real Betis Balompié | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1510 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Trabzonspor | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1526 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Trabzonspor | 2 | 122 | 0 | 0 | 1482 |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 5 | 443 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Real Betis Balompié | 4 | 390 | 0 | 0 | 1520 |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 3 | 255 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 7 | 580 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Real Betis Balompié | 6 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 1486 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 350 | 0 | 0 | 1632 |
| 2017/18 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 215 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1855 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 7 | 580 | 1 | 0 | 1637 |
| 2016/17 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 376 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1853 |
| 2015/16 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 5 | 331 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 4 | 236 | 0 | 0 | 1515 |
| 2015/16 | Supercopa | FC Barcelona | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1616 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Super Cup | FC Barcelona | 1 | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1771 |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 6 | 451 | 0 | 1 | 1519 |
| 2014/15 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 5 | 362 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2013/14 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 6 | 447 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2013/14 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 4 | 268 | 0 | 0 | 1689 |
| 2012/13 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 6 | 372 | 0 | 0 | 1660 |
| 2012/13 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nemanja Vidic Serie A · 2015 | 34 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Joel Ward Premier League · 2024 | 35 | €1.0M | €300k | fell |
| Rod Fanni Ligue 1 · 2017 | 36 | €500k | €175k | fell |
| Phil Bardsley Premier League · 2020 | 35 | €800k | €250k | fell |
| Oscar Wendt Bundesliga · 2021 | 36 | €600k | €400k | fell |
| Raúl Albiol Laliga · 2024 | 39 | €1.5M | €700k | fell |
| Filip Daems Bundesliga · 2013 | 35 | €1.0M | €250k | fell |
| Martin Jiranek Premier Liga · 2013 | 34 | €500k | €200k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jul 2023 | Trabzonspor | Real Betis | Free / loan | €3.7M |
| 15 Aug 2022 | Real Betis | Trabzonspor | €1.3M | €6.0M |
| 30 Jan 2018 | Dortmund | Real Betis | €10.5M | €15.0M |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Barcelona | Dortmund | €8.0M | €8.0M |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Barcelona B | Barcelona | Unknown | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Barça U19 | Barça Atlètic | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Barça U18 | Barça U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | Barça U16 | Barça U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2006 | Barça Youth | Barça U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2002 | Espanyol Youth | Barça Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.